If this season should us anything it's that it hard to predict winners in this league. When I set out to make my first-ever preseason projections, I knew it was an uphill battle. I wanted to get some experience at projecting records, that way I could look back and see just how wrong I was. Gain a different perspective looking at the preseason next year. Some people don't want to bother looking in the past at meaningless prediction, but I think lessons can be learned.
Playoff teams correct: 8 of 12. Not too bad. (Green Bay, Atlanta, New Orleans, New England, New York Jets, Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Indianapolis) However, with a closer look, I correctly predicted only one division winner (Indianapolis). I put the NFC South, AFC North and AFC East in the wrong order of top-2 finishers.
Correct records: Only one: New York Jets 11-5. But, as mentioned, I thought they would win the division. I remember looking at Peter King's from 2009. He only got one record exactly correct that year so maybe that's all you can hope for because no one knows more about football than him. (That was sarcasm. Thank you.) Didn't check his this year.
One game off: Giants, Buffalo, Cleveland, Jacksonville, Seattle - Got one MORE win than I thought. Denver, Baltimore and New Orleans got one LESS than I thought.
If you're keeping track at home, that's 9 of 32 teams within one game of actual record.
Close one: Cincinnati- Picking them to go 6-10 was "edgy" at the time. Should have given them even less credit. Finished 4-12.
UNDERESTIMATED: St. Louis- Sam Bradford made me a believer, produced a playoff shot and the Rams made drastic improvements. 7-9 was way better than I thought (2-14). Kansas City- Sold them short five wins. Chicago- The team that proved me wrong time and time again. Thought they would stumble around in the middle of the pack, but that only came three times. I figured for five or six times. Improved my record by four games. Tampa Bay- The biggest underestimation. I planned for another tough year no such thing. Wish they could've made the playoffs. The seven game discrepancy from my preseason picks was the largest difference. Philadelphia- My mistake was thinking Kevin Kolb would be the starter. Should have known you can't keep Mike Vick on the sidelines for long. Oakland- I hoped for six wins and they easily surpassed that by winning all six division games. Getting to eight wins is big for the Raiders and Cable Guy. New England- Playoff team, yes. Complete domination and 14-2, no. Nothing Belichick and Brady are able to accomplish surprises me.
COMPLETE OVER-ESTIMATION: Minnesota- Just a terrible season. Favre had absolutely nothing in the tank and didn't want to be there. Add a few sex scandals, Randy Moss berating a caterer, Chili being shown the door mid-season and the Metrodome collapsing, this is a season to forget. Dallas- I knew Bum's Son had no control but even I was surprised by a 1-7 start with a roster full of Pro Bowlers. San Francisco- Kudos, Singletary. You were able to fool me into thinking you could actually win a few games. The locker room turned on him fast and I should've seen it coming. San Diego- Norval and Phil Rivers lost too many winnable games while management played chicken with two of its best players. Certainly a disappointment. Tennessee- The demise can be attributed to the Fisher/Young relationship, which could have potentially been spotted. Carolina- I wanted to think they could at least compete. Wrong, not this year.
If you want to see all the predictions, they can be found in the September archives. It's an eye-opener looking back, but hopefully next year's will be better.
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