Bad Signs, especially for the Dolphins

Sometimes you it's so obvious you have to trust the simplicity of it. You don't need to give it any more thought. It's clear. Trust the glaring signs.

Signs your NFL team is up against it this season.

Picking up where he left off last season. 

• You're answering questions about Brett Favre. Tony Sparano "isn't ruling anything out. Ok?" I'm sure he's not, and the media is dying to talk about Favre again, but why are they asking only Sparano? Miami is also the only team who really needed a QB that didn't land one. (I guess San Fran as well.) And Henne is already hearing the boos. 
• You're reportedly working out Tiki Barber. A double play for the Dolphins. They lose Ronnie Brown to the Eagles. Ricky Williams is finally at the end of the line and can finally walk away from the NFL, a day he no doubt cannot wait for. They clearly are desperate for a running back, which they desperately need to run the offense best suited for Sparano and Henne. 
• Your head coach is already on the hot seat. Hello again, Dolphins. Sparano was surprisingly retained by Miami after a rough 2010 season, where the Dolphins went 1-7 at home and ranked 29th in scoring. To go along with the Favre and Barber questions, Miami just signed 37-year-old Jason Taylor. They need help bad. Here's Sparano on all of this (courtesy of ESPN): "I can't rule anything out. OK? So, I mean, we don't rule anything out. I don't know how you want me to answer that. That'll be all over the news now too." ... "You know Tiki's age. We signed Jason Taylor. So we're going to flip over whatever rocks we think are necessary in this process. I don't want to say something that my feet are to the fire on."

The Dolphins are shooting distress flares all over Miami very early in the 2011 season. The Dolphins will be hard-pressed all year, and Sparano may be fired before the end of the season.

• BONUS SIGN: You signed Tarvaris Jackson to start at QB. This is an immediate red flag. You wonder if Pete Carroll has bothered to watch all the film of Tarvaris. Of course Dick Bevell has shown him all the good footage, not that it was extensive. The Seahawks will be better than some but not by much. Trying to find hope in Minnesota castaways is not a good sign. Sidney Rice will not live up to the expectations of his contract. At least they brought in The Cable Guy in case somebody needs their jaw broke.

(Photo credit: miamidolphins.com)

NFL Trading Block

Two days into the official start of the NFL season, teams are frantically signing and trading players. Free agency won't open until Friday, July 29 at 5 p.m. EST, but many teams have already gotten major pieces via trades.

Big Names On Move

McNabb moves on after a tumultuous year in D.C.

Donovan McNabb to Minnesota Vikings -
The Vikings had to do it. Facing the reality of a rookie quarterback starting, Minnesota had to make a move on McNabb. It's a good fit for both teams. Washington desperately wanted him gone, and Minnesota's situation allowed to gamble on a clearly fading McNabb career. While this is a wise move for the Vikings, it doesn't ensure anything but a couple more wins. Minnesota will have a hard time making the playoffs regardless of QB.


Albert Haynesworth and Chad Ochocinco to New England Patriots - 
Bill Belichick is known as the guy who can take any player with talent, regardless of personal baggage, and put them to good use. He's proved it with Corey Dillon and Randy Moss. Now he's made a move to sure up the D-line and get a reliable receiver for Tom Brady by bringing in Albert Haynesworth and Chad Ochocinco, two guys that have been a pain in the asses of their previous coaches. The difference between Belichick and most of the league, why he can take on "problem" players and immediately get production, is communication. It's the oldest thing in the book. He knows how to deal with all players. That's why he's so good year-in and year-out. He schemes very well and he knows how to deal with an NFL locker room. Haynesworth and Ochocinco will help New England greatly this year.


Kevin Kolb to Arizona Cardinals for Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and 2nd rd. pick -
Arizona desperate for a QB + Eagles with one to spare = Andy Reid worked over Arizona into sending a very good CB over for a guy he wasn't even going to use. And a 2nd-round pick on top of it. Kolb's career consists of 19 games in four years. He's thrown 11 TDs and 14 INTs. He was concussed in the first game last year. There's doubt there. However, Kolb has potential. Arizona gave him the shot he wanted. Now he must really deliver a midst pressure he's never seen before.

Tarvaris Jackson and Sidney Rice to Seattle Seahawks - 
Digging through Minnesota's castaways probably isn't the best choice for a young team with a new coach. But Pete Carroll and Seattle are going to try it. Jackson proved too many times in Minnesota that he can't be a starting QB in this league for an entire season. Rice proved nothing more than he could catch passes from a vintage Brett Favre. Rice caught 19 passes in six games last year. He was plagued by injuries, due to rushing back from a training camp surgery. As Rice should already know, there's a big difference between Favre throwing the ball and TJack. Rice went to highest bidder.

Reggie Bush to Miami Dolphins -
The writing hit the wall draft night when New Orleans drafted RB Mark Ingram. Bush sent an ill-advised tweet about how it's "been nice knowing" the Saints organization. He knew his time was up. The injuries and inconsistent play, coupled with an upcoming contract situation, suggested it was time to move on. Miami picking him up makes sense and should help both involved. Bush will have opportunities to carry the ball outside the tackles and add to Tony Sparano's rushing game, which needs to get back to where it was in 2008.

(Photo: Yardback.com, David Johnson)

Jay Cutler in "The Injury and The Backlash"

We get spoiled by NFL players. We see these modern-day gladiators banging their heads into each other week after week. We see them dragging around broken ankles and legs and playing with a club hand. We're so used to seeing players sacrificing their bodies that when someone doesn't play with an injury, we're all taken aback.

The immediate reaction to Jay Cutler and the Bears coaching and medical staff's decision to sit out the second half of the NFC Championship game due to a knee injury cut deep. Cutler's toughness, mentality, desire, effort and body language were all called into question as soon as he didn't re-enter the game. With no specific play highlighted to account for the injury, it was easy for people to jump down Cutler's throat about not finishing the game.

In the NFL, we expect these guys to do whatever it takes to win the game. Seeing Cutler on the exercise bike for about five minutes and seeing him standing on the bum leg on the sidelines, people questioned what Cutler was all about.

Cutler's reputation took a hit

Lovie Smith confirmed Monday Cutler suffered a sprained MCL during the first half. Can we call Cutler's toughness into question now that we know what the injury he suffered? Should everyone have waited for the MRI before getting on their Twitter accounts and calling him out? The answer is no, to both.

Most would agree Cutler is tough. He's got to be playing QB in the NFL, behind that line, which gave up 57 sacks this year. But he's not "Favre-tough" or "Big Ben-tough." People are going to rush to judgement about Cutler because they know guys like Favre and Roethlisberger would still be out there, dragging that leg around, trying to make a play. That's Cutler's only fault. And no one knows, except Jay Cutler, how much pain was in that knee.

Smith also said it was his decision to pull Cutler. "He was hurt, he couldn't go, so we moved on." That sounds like a "Vince Young" to me. (def: The QB gets dinged after playing awful. He "tries" to give it a go but doesn't really want to go back in. The coach says enough is enough, this guy's not helping us today even if he is healthy. Let's put the next guy in, regardless of how awful he might be.) Maybe effectiveness played a role in the decision to sit him.

Which brings us to the Bears' back-up quarterback situation. Has to be worst in the NFL. Todd Collins has a chance to go legend and instead throws four incomplete passes before being pulled for emergency-QB Caleb Hanie. It would seem Cutler on one leg, having a bad day, would be more effective than Collins. Hanie did better than anyone could have hoped and actually made a game of it. Nice job by him, despite a couple ill-advised throws (B.J. Raji).

While watching the game Sunday, I was critical of Cutler, like so many others. I felt if he could stand, he should be out there. Only a broken leg should keep someone out of a game to go to the Super Bowl. But I've been spoiled watching the NFL. I've seen Phil Rivers play two games on a torn ACL and I said "If he can do it, why can't you?"

Each player and each injury is different, however. The backlash on Cutler went over-the-top but I understand why it happened. I won't label him a quitter but he's reputation will need some recovery. But unlike his sprained knee, it will take longer than three to four weeks.

Packers or Bears? Tough Call

Best game of the year

Bears vs. Packers with a Super Bowl trip on the line is a dream match-up for more than just the great people of NFC North country. This is NFL history. The first playoff meeting for these storied franchise since 1941. Only the fourth time they've made the playoffs in the same year. As great as it will be to watch, it's even tougher to pick the winner.

If you pretend to know who's going to win this game, you're just kidding yourself. There's a laundry list of reasons why each team should win or lose. It's setting up for a memorable NFC Championship game. I can't recall a game I've personally been more intrigued to watch.

Why the Bears Will Win:

• Soldier Field. In a match-up this close, the home team will have an edge. While the Packers have spent much of the week saying the field conditions are the "worst in the NFL," the Bears are used to it. Put on the right cleats.
• Bears Defense. Clearly one of the best in the league, again. The ability to pressure with just the four down linemen will cause problems for Aaron Rodgers, who has exploited teams who must blitz all year. Julius Peppers could be MVP of the game. Briggs, Urlacher and Co. will stop the run and put even more pressure on Rodgers to do it himself in cold, windy conditions. The Packers struggled to move the ball on them both time they played this year, once when the Bears had nothing to play for.
• Jay Cutler and Mike Martz. This combo continues to impress with good play-calling and excellent execution. Chicago's screen game, with Matt Forte, will keep the hard-blitzing Packers' defense off balance. A veteran like Martz will be able to scheme on the Dom Capers' defense better than most.
• Special Teams. Devin Hester is the best return man in the history of the game. The Packers are known to give up big plays on special teams. A lot of pressure falls on the Packers' coverage teams.
• They seem to have the Packers' number. Beat them at home on a late field goal and shut them down in the last game of the season before giving up a late touchdown on the road. The Bears' strengths match up well with against the Packers.
• Underdog. No one outside of Chicago and Bears fans think they can win. Vegas has Packers by 3.5. People haven't given the Bears credit all year (I'm guilty). They proved everyone wrong by making the playoffs, winning the division and being in this position. The masses will be against them again with Green Bay and Rodgers playing at such a high level right now. As we continue to see in the NFL, the team people don't give a chance rise up and shoves it in their face.

Will the stellar play continue?

Why the Packers Will Win:

• Aaron Rodgers. No one is playing at a higher level right now. After the Atlanta beat down, people were saying how it was the greatest game ever by a Packer QB. Rodgers is driven by the need to prove he can do it better than Favre, and Packers fans want that just as bad. He dismissed the foolish rap of not being able to win a playoff game with two huge road wins. The accuracy, athleticism, scrambling and composure are putting Rodgers into the top-tier level of NFL quarterbacks. With a Super Bowl win, or even appearance, no one will doubt he belongs in that category.
• Packers Defense. The blitz will be in Cutler's face all game long. The Bears must account for Clay Matthews on every play because he is coming and he is relentless. Cutler was sacked nine times in the two meetings in the regular season. With less time to throw, Cutler will have to avoid Tramon Williams, who single-handedly crushed the Falcons' hopes with two back-breaking interceptions. The Packers were second in the league in points allowed and the Bears were 21st in points scored.

Green Bay must turn Cutler into "Bad Jay"

Wildcards:

• Cutler. Could be due for a stinker. Consistency has always been the issue. He's only got one playoff game under his belt and it was against a sub-.500 team that shouldn't have been there. It's a feast-or-famine situation with Cutler. It wouldn't surprise anyone if he had three picks, or if he throws three touchdowns. I'll need to see it to believe it with him.
• Mike McCarthy. He's been known to come with a dud in big games too many times. His clock management skills have widely ridiculed. His special teams will give up huge plays and his offense and play-calling have already been shut down by the Bears D twice.
• Motivation. I have to think the Bears have more with everyone picking against them and being at home. But the Packers have plenty in their own right. This is the true wildcard to the game. When everyone is going with one team (Packers), I cringe. Never seems to work out that way, i.e. Seahawks v Saints, Patriots v Jets.

I've debated the winner of this game all week. It seems after that breakdown I would be favoring the Bears. Not necessarily but I know they can win this game for those reasons. I've doubted the Bears and thought the Packers were the better team all year. The Bears had an easy road, but if you look at it, the Packers regular season road wasn't much tougher. However, they've proven themselves in the playoffs. The Bears beat the Seahawks. Despite my doubts, the Bears have proved me wrong time and time again. And they will have to do it one more time. I'm going with my head instead of the feeling that's been creeping into my gut this week. Packers 17 Bears 16. Prove me wrong again, Chicago.

AFC Championship prediction: Steelers 20 Jets 13. I really like the Steelers here. Big Ben, the defense and I don't see the Jets beating them twice at Pittsburgh in the same year. 

Weekend Rundown

1. College is great. I loved it. When you're there, you want to stay forever, avoid the real world, and hit the weekend kegger. We all know how great it is. You know what's even better than the college lifestyle? $50 million guaranteed. Andrew Luck decided to return for his senior year at Stanford instead of being the No. 1 pick in April's draft and cashing a check that would set up the rest of his life.

Good "Luck" with that decision......Hey-O!

Don't get me wrong, Luck can do whatever he wants and make his own decisions that are best for him and his family. But I don't want to hear about "finishing his engineering degree." That can easily be done at any time. If the NFL wants to give you millions and millions and go down in history as a number one pick, you grab that opportunity unless you're scared to take on the challenge. 

Maybe Andrew Luck and his family see a bigger picture that I don't. However, if I'm a starting Division I QB, my ultimate goal is to be a Pro Bowl, championship-winning NFL QB. That's my a childhood dream so when the NFL comes knocking, I answer the door. I don't say, "Maybe next year."

Luck can still be a great NFL QB. Maybe he'll get drafted into a better opportunity than he would have this year, but that's as unknown as if he'll stay healthy until next year's draft. Good luck topping this season, especially without Jim Harbaugh.....

2. Never have I seen a coach blow up on the scene like Harbaugh. Listening to the bidding war over him by NFL teams the past week, it would seem like he's already won multiple Super Bowl rings. He's already built up by the media to be the "next great head coach." The 49ers seem like a good choice, Harbaugh is from the Bay area, and the team isn't that bad. They should have won their division this year. The problem becomes finding a QB, and, in the meantime, getting something out of the Smiths (Alex and Troy) next year. 

Based on what his brother John is doing in Baltimore and the Stanford turnaround, Jim Harbaugh seems like he will be a dynamic coach. Joining the NFC West also helps a first-year coach.

3. The media circus that Rex Ryan likes to create is entertaining, if nothing else. This week he took another unwarranted shot at Tom Brady. Ryan, discussing today's matchup with the Colts, talked about how no one is like Peyton Manning, no one studies like him. Then he said, "I know Brady thinks he does but I think there's probably more help from Belichick with Brady than there is with Peyton Manning." Why does Rex bother firing him up? That's been proven not to work. He goes out of his way to take a shot at the league's soon-to-be MVP when it's a long shot the Jets will even be around to meet up with the Patriots again. The NFL can always use more rivalry, coach-on-opponent smack. With Rex around, there won't be any shortage of it.

4. When this blog started a year ago one of the first posts were NFL Playoff predictions. Here are my Wildcard predictions:

Saints over Seahawks - For obvious reasons.

Colts over Jets - The key for the Jets is Mark Sanchez, it always is. He plays a little better on the road but you won't see me picking against Peyton Manning at home in the first round anytime soon. 

Ravens over Chiefs - I like the experience the Ravens are bringing to this game. A lot of pressure on the young Chiefs to make something of this miraculous division title. The Ravens went into New England last year and smacked Brady and Belichick in the Wildcard round so I don't see them getting knocked out here by the Chiefs.

Eagles over Packers - Tough call. I'll take the Eagles at home, who rested up last week. Aaron Rodgers has a QB rating of 107 against the blitz so there are plenty of concerns for the Eagles. Rodgers needs this win badly for his career but the Eagles are the wrong matchup for him to get it. Mike Vick wants a playoff win even more and I see a big game from of him. When Vick is rolling, the Eagles might be the best team in the league.

NFL Season Prediction Recap

If this season should us anything it's that it hard to predict winners in this league. When I set out to make my first-ever preseason projections, I knew it was an uphill battle. I wanted to get some experience at projecting records, that way I could look back and see just how wrong I was. Gain a different perspective looking at the preseason next year. Some people don't want to bother looking in the past at meaningless prediction, but I think lessons can be learned.

Playoff teams correct: 8 of 12. Not too bad. (Green Bay, Atlanta, New Orleans, New England, New York Jets, Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Indianapolis) However, with a closer look, I correctly predicted only one division winner (Indianapolis). I put the NFC South, AFC North and AFC East in the wrong order of top-2 finishers.

Correct records: Only one: New York Jets 11-5. But, as mentioned, I thought they would win the division. I remember looking at Peter King's from 2009. He only got one record exactly correct that year so maybe that's all you can hope for because no one knows more about football than him. (That was sarcasm. Thank you.) Didn't check his this year.

One game off: Giants, Buffalo, Cleveland, Jacksonville, Seattle - Got one MORE win than I thought. Denver, Baltimore and New Orleans got one LESS than I thought.

If you're keeping track at home, that's 9 of 32 teams within one game of actual record.

Close one: Cincinnati- Picking them to go 6-10 was "edgy" at the time. Should have given them even less credit. Finished 4-12.

UNDERESTIMATED: St. Louis- Sam Bradford made me a believer, produced a playoff shot and the Rams made drastic improvements. 7-9 was way better than I thought (2-14). Kansas City- Sold them short five wins. Chicago- The team that proved me wrong time and time again. Thought they would stumble around in the middle of the pack, but that only came three times. I figured for five or six times. Improved my record by four games. Tampa Bay- The biggest underestimation. I planned for another tough year no such thing. Wish they could've made the playoffs. The seven game discrepancy from my preseason picks was the largest difference. Philadelphia- My mistake was thinking Kevin Kolb would be the starter. Should have known you can't keep Mike Vick on the sidelines for long. Oakland- I hoped for six wins and they easily surpassed that by winning all six division games. Getting to eight wins is big for the Raiders and Cable Guy. New England- Playoff team, yes. Complete domination and 14-2, no. Nothing Belichick and Brady are able to accomplish surprises me.

COMPLETE OVER-ESTIMATION: Minnesota- Just a terrible season. Favre had absolutely nothing in the tank and didn't want to be there. Add a few sex scandals, Randy Moss berating a caterer, Chili being shown the door mid-season and the Metrodome collapsing, this is a season to forget. Dallas- I knew Bum's Son had no control but even I was surprised by a 1-7 start with a roster full of Pro Bowlers. San Francisco- Kudos, Singletary. You were able to fool me into thinking you could actually win a few games. The locker room turned on him fast and I should've seen it coming. San Diego- Norval and Phil Rivers lost too many winnable games while management played chicken with two of its best players. Certainly a disappointment. Tennessee- The demise can be attributed to the Fisher/Young relationship, which could have potentially been spotted. Carolina- I wanted to think they could at least compete. Wrong, not this year.

If you want to see all the predictions, they can be found in the September archives. It's an eye-opener looking back, but hopefully next year's will be better.

Investigation to Nowhere

It took a four month investigation to find out what we already knew: nothing. The NFL finally waved the white flag, in the last week of the season, and declared they couldn't prove Brett Favre texted pictures of "his junk" to Jenn Sterger. In order to prove they were trying to find something, they fined Favre $50 grand for "not cooperating with the investigation."

This whole story stinks and it has ever since Deadspin, the hacks they are, decided they would essentially help Sterger exhort Favre over pictures that couldn't be linked to him. I don't mind the voice mails that were released. Each person can decide if that was Favre on the phone. But to release pictures of someone's dick and claim they're Favre's is stupid, salacious and disgusting. It's also bad reporting and journalism. And that's what Deadspin does.

Sterger was after money, that much is clear. When she couldn't get any from Favre, or not enough, she sold these pictures to Deadspin, who bought them hook, line and sinker. The seedy situation was talked about all season long and it provided an opportunity to bury Favre off the field.

Deadspin simply wanted to make a fool of Favre and destroy what was left of a shattered reputation. They pretty much succeeded because of the "judge first, find out facts maybe later, maybe never" attitude prevalent in today's society. I'm not here to defend Favre; I want him to go away as much as the next guy. But I also had to sit through months of "coverage" on this "story" only to have the NFL say they couldn't prove or find anything wrong.

The investigation dragged on much longer than necessary to find nothing. The $50,000 fine seems to be an effort to blame Favre for something, anything. Two months ago, Goodell said Favre was cooperating. Now he says Favre wasn't "candid enough in his responses." Does that mean he was fined for not admitting it? It was a he-said-she-said situation from the beginning. Goodell handled this about as poorly as Deadspin.

Hopefully this story, which allegedly took place two years ago, will go away forever. It's wasted too much of our time already. Unfortunately, I'm sure Deadspin will have a similar and less credible story soon.

Don't Bet On It

The NFL is great at making you think you know something only to be proven 100% wrong hours later. Picking games makes you question your sanity at times. You try and spot trends and break down the matchups but sometimes it just doesn't make sense.

"You never know," Bill Belichick said after beating Pittsburgh on the road last month, a game few thought New England would win at the time. "If you know what's going to happen in this league you can make a lot of money."

It's an old line but it's never been more accurate. Vegas must be cleaning up this year. The Bears and Chiefs are division champs? That's a situation I didn't believe until I saw it, and I still scratch my head. The Vikings really didn't beat the Eagles last night, did they? It's been a crazy year, to say the least.

Let's just talk about picking winners because I don't have the disposable income to put money down on a line, and don't want to throw it down the drain. If you bet on the favorite (based on the Vegas line) last week, you would have lost seven games. I would say that's a little above average for each week. In Week 15 there were five "upsets."

While it may be futile to try and put a finger on one particular aspect of a team on whether they win or lose, I've done just that: Look at the coach. Sure, the players win the game but there are too many players to take into consideration. The quarterback is a major factor, as well as injuries and home or away. But when I'm desperate for a winner, I look at who is leading that team and how have the been going lately.

If I was smart, I could have cashed in big time at the start of the year on the Cowboys and Vikings. That was the coach. How about the 49ers? Don't you wish you would have know Singletary had absolutely no clue what he was doing at the beginning of the year? Coaching has certainly played significant roles in the Bears (Martz) and Chiefs (coordinators, plus Haley getting players to buy in) success. And in the demise of the Cowboys, Vikings and Broncos.

Of all the qualities a successful NFL head coach must have, none is more important than the ability to MOTIVATE. That's number 1. The second and nearly as important is scheme. It's based on communication and knowledge. Can you get these guys to play with their hair on fire within a scheme that will outsmart your opponent?

Andy Reid couldn't last night. There's not one thing that pointed to the Vikings winning that game. Philadelphia was hot, Vikings were starting a rookie and had nothing to play for, on the road. It must have been the messed up schedule. I blame Reid (and Vick, of course) for not having them focused on beating a lowly Minnesota team. Teams have feasted on that defense. Philly leads the league in offense. It just doesn't make sense.

I'll go back to Singletary. He's a "motivator" and that's it. As far as I can tell he has no ability to scheme, judge talent or make decisions. When that's the case, you must have coordinators surrounding you with the knowledge the head coach lacks. That wasn't the case in San Fran this year. Then, when things start to go south, you can't continue to berate your players publicly and privately, while not being able to make a decision on who to play at quarterback. Players will tire of your "motivating" style and begin to shut down. That's what happened in Dallas, Minnesota, and Denver. The team tires of the head coach's crap and whether it's sub-consciously or not, the won't play hard or well.

Tony Sparano is another great "motivating" head coach. He is fiery and seems to communicate well with players and media (another thing Singletary lacked.) But his teams are impossible to read. I've struggled the most trying to figure out the Dolphins this year. I'm 5-10 picking Miami games. Of course you could say, "Well look at the quarterback situation." Sparano needs to work the run game and defense, to compensate for a quarterback who should be further along. He also shouldn't have Chad Pennington as a back-up, a guy who is so fragile at this point he was injured falling down after two snaps. The Dolphins are 1-7 at home this season, for goodness sake. That's a head coaching problem but Sparano still isn't in the same category as Singletary.

Another coach to look at is Tom Coughlin. He's a guy who tends to rub players the wrong way at times. After the Eagles-game debacle, the team clearly wasn't up to the task in Green Bay Sunday. They were steam-rolled and Eli Manning looked awful. The defense was just as bad.

The NFL is so hard to read it's almost better if you don't use any logic. Norval Turner is another shining example of how to lose games that should easily be won. Especially at the start of the year. It's just doesn't make any sense some times. And that's what's great about the NFL. There's no rhyme or reason for some games, and like they say, "that's why you play the games." Because "you never know."

My 2010 record picking games: 147-93
2009 record: 171-85
2008 record: 170-86

Just goes to show the more I think I know, the less I actually do. I can't wait to try and pick playoff games.

NFC Power Rankings

Figuring out the NFC hasn't been easy this year. There are some legit contenders, some decent teams that have no real shot, teams that have disappointed and surprised, and some straight-up dumpster fires. Here's a look at Week 13 NFC Power Rankings.

CONTENDERS


1) Atlanta (10-2) - Matt Ryan is earning the "Matty Ice" nickname time and time again. The balanced attack and three-headed offensive monster in Ryan, Roddy White and Michael Turner is a force to be reckoned with. The aren't winning with flash but winning nonetheless. Best chance to represent the NFC in Super Bowl today.

2) Philadelphia (8-4) - Mike Vick is in the MVP discussion and is leading one of the top offenses in the league (1st in yards, 2nd in scoring). The defense isn't quite where it's been in the past when Jim Johnson was running things but can still get pressure. They're leading the league in interceptions (20).

3) Green Bay (8-4) -  The offense and Aaron Rodgers get much of the credit, but the defense is pulling major weight. Dom Capers, Clay Mathews and Charles Woodson have the Pack leading the league in scoring (15.3 points per game), tied for third in sacks and fifth in interceptions. The trendy Super Bowl pick at the start of the year, the Pack are still in good position to get there.

4) New Orleans (9-3) - No Super Bowl hangover here. Sure, they've had some scraps along the way (still wondering how they lost to Arizona) and have been in a dogfight nearly every week but they are coming out on top. The offense is always ready to strike and the defense is still very opportunistic.

GOOD BUT NOT LEGIT 


5) New York Giants (8-4) - You never know what Coughlin is going to bring to the table each week. Started slow, picked up aggressively, now back in the middle. Eli and the defense have been inconsistent at times. Most likely a playoff team but not a noise-maker.

6) Chicago (9-3) - The Bears continue to surprise me but as I've pointed out earlier, they haven't played the toughest schedule. They still won the games and beating Philadelphia gave them more credibility. The tough part of the schedule remains: New England, at Vikings, Jets and Packers to close out the year. Solid team who should make the playoffs but not a legit contender.

7) Tampa Bay  (7-5) - Quietly, and shockingly, the Bucs have emerged as a good NFL team. QB Josh Freeman and head coach Raheem Morris are making names for themselves this season. The Bucs are beating the teams they should and playing the better teams tough and to the wire. Things are looking up in Tampa Bay.

THE UNUSUAL SUSPECTS
This group could all interchange. Two are complete disappointments and two are complete shockers.


8) St. Louis (6-6) - One of the biggest, if not the biggest, surprise of the year. Rookie Sam Bradford is winning more and more people every week and the defense is keeping them in most games. Leading the division with a chance to claim the division is one thing I never thought I'd see after Week 13 this year.

9) Dallas (4-8) - Playing much better under Jason Garrett beating the Giants, Colts and almost pulling out a game vs. New Orleans. The Cowboys are actually trying now and Jon Kitna has settled into his role. The Dez Bryant injury will hurt even though Kitna, it seemed, purposely wouldn't throw him the ball in the New Orleans game.

10) Minnesota (5-7) - The dark, smelly cloud of incompetence left with Chilly. Unfortunately the haze of Favre, his streak and continued poor play haunts the Vikings as the desperately await the end of the season. Competitiveness is improved with Leslie Frazier but nothing to get to excited about.

11) Seattle (6-6) - They could actually win the division. This team looks great one week, then god awful the next. You used to be able to count on them winning at home but even that's in question this year. Kudos to them if they can pull out the NFC West and host another playoff game.

AT LEAST THEY'RE COMPETING

12) Detroit (2-10) - Competing hard and nasty every week. If the NFL wasn't out to get them they would have beat the Bears twice and got some other ones along the way. They're in every game (only a half vs New England) and if they weren't using 2nd- and 3rd-string QBs all year they might have pulled out a couple more wins. I like this team and its style of play. Don't like Stafford's durability and that could screw them royally in the future.

IS THE SEASON OVER YET?

13) San Fransisco (4-8) - Total dud this year. Singletary is on his way out the door, or at least he should be. They change quarterbacks more than the Raiders and lost Frank Gore two weeks ago. A couple questions were answered this year: Singletary and Alex Smith aren't the guys for the job.

14) Washington (5-7) - They've completely quit. Shanahan destroyed this team from the start with the handling of Haynesworth, not that Big Al doesn't deserve some blame. I put most of it on Shanahan and his under-qualified son. Not only did they try to make a point with the best defensive player but also with the new QB, Donovan. It's been ugly since the get-go. They've gotten some wins but have been embarrassed in all seven losses. Get over yourself, Shanahan. Terrell Davis and John Elway got you those rings. Back off the smugness, please.

15) Carolina (1-11) - A season to forget in Charlotte. You can point to numerous things but they just haven't got it done. John Fox will most likely be relieved of his duties but he'll catch on with someone else shortly.

16) Arizona (3-9) - Super Bowl two years ago. Beat the Packers in the playoffs last year. So much has changed for the Cards in the last year they are now the worst team in the conference and league. What was it? Players leaving/retiring, lack of a stable QB, a defense that doesn't know how to make a play or tackle, and many more things. It's so bad Ken Whisenhunt is jealous of Wade Phillips. Just wave the white flag and cash it in. It's over for 2010, Arizona. "Maybe next year."

Streak Must Continue



How dare he consider benching Favre

As the Vikings 2010 season continues to circle the toilet, Brett Favre and Brad Childress are entering an epic showdown. Favre, with two fractures in his ankle, wants to give playing "a try" on Sunday against New England and keep his 291 consecutive games played streak alive. Chilly isn't sure he wants to give him that chance.

Despite everything Favre's been through the last few years, the streak has always been the biggest part of his legacy. He's played with every injury under the sun. There's a reason he was hooked on Vicodin years ago. For the last 20 years, if you couldn't believe in anything else, believe in Favre under center on Sunday.

Now Brad Childress, of all people, wants to come in and say "I've gotta do what's best for this team." What's best for the team is having the guy everyone bent over backwards for play quarterback. If Chilly thinks he's going to get back control of the team by making a stand against a banged-up Favre, he's dumber than he looks and sounds. Benching Favre mid-season is a worse move than sending guys to Mississippi to corner him into coming back and lying about it.

Chilly won't bench Favre. He would like to but he knows he can't do it. As long as Favre isn't down with a season/career-ending, surgery-requiring injury, he will be the Vikings quarterback. Chilly is the last guy to make that call with the mockery he's made of his position over the last two years. Favre now runs the team, Childress. He got you a $15 million extension (the dumbest move of the past decade, just ahead of JaMarcuss Russell.) If Favre doesn't want to play, then look to TJack. But that won't happen because the only thing he has left is the streak. Until Favre shuts it down himself you're stuck with him. It's exactly what you wanted, Chilldress.

NFL Needs To Be Careful

There's a lot the NFL needs to be careful of these days. Number one is still avoiding a lockout next year, but this week's topic is avoiding changing how the game we love is played.   The NFL is stepping in with fines, and possible suspensions, on what they deem "dirty" hits. They need to be very careful on how they go about with these fines and how to protect players without ruining the game and product on the field.

I've sat on this dilemma for a minute or two and I'm ready to go helmet-to-helmet on it.

The NFL was wrong to fine James Harrison $75 grand for the hits he put on two Browns receivers. He should quote Col. Nathan Jessep in A Few Good Men, "I did my job and I'll do it again." That's how Harrison plays football, that's how he became Defensive Player of the Year, and he should be concerned with how the league is going to be enforcing these rules. Harrison was simply a scapegoat after last weekend.

If both Browns players, Josh Cribbs and Mohamed Massaquoi, weren't concussed, Harrison doesn't get fined. It's not even an issue. But because they suffered concussions, people were up in arms. I seen harder, bigger hits on kickoffs. I don't want to down play the magnitude of Harrison's hits on Cribbs and Massaquoi, they were BIG, but they happen in nearly every game.

An example of a play that nobody paid any attention because there wasn't a concussion: Eagles-Redskins game. Redskins kicking off to Jorrick Calvin. Phillip Daniels, #93 for the Redskins, a DE, absolutely blows him up with a helmet-to-helmet that was the biggest hit I saw that weekend. I rewound it 4-5 times. But Calvin hopped right up (somehow) and ran off the field. That same hit probably concusses another player. I have scoured the internet looking for it but because it was just a standard 20-yard return it's vanished into thin air, with the hundreds of other hits that may now be fineable, if someone is knocked out of the game. I never saw it on a highlight. (Maybe it was featured on "jack'ed up," I don't know, I don't watch MNF pregame.)

The hits last weekend need to be addressed. When I saw the Dunta Robinson hit on DeSean Jackson, I squirmed. I don't want to see hits like that, especially when both players are down, not moving. But it's part of the NFL, and to a certain extent, unavoidable. NO player should launch with the helmet into the helmet of a defenseless receiver but the line is so fine it's easy to see why people like Harrison are concerned with how they can be effective without getting fined, or suspended.

We all want to see the players protected but the players themselves don't seem to think it's necessary. Obviously the defensive players think it's a bad idea but even Josh Cribbs told Jim Rome, "It's part of the game, which I love dearly. It's what we signed up for." That last sentence seems to be the mantra for ALL NFL players. They know what can happen out there, they signed up to be a part of it, and are paid well to put themselves in harm's way.

Another way to avoid these hits on defenseless receivers like Jackson, Massaquoi and Jordan Shipley a few weeks ago is for QBs not to hang them out to dry. More blame goes to the QB on those hits than anyone wants to say.

Big hits, "dirty hits," egregious hits, whatever you want to call them, are not new to the NFL. The league overreacted after a weekend that featured what they felt were too many. The NFL needs to be very careful on how they go about "protecting their players." Like the NBA with its new technical foul policy, the league may think it's doing people a favor but the product we're watching will be effected and compromised.

The NFL must be clear on how they want to enforce these rules and releasing a video mid-week might not be the best option. I still don't know if Dunta Robinson's hit was illegal or not. Some say yes (league,) others say no (players, analysts.) I'm okay with a fine for that one and Brandon Meriweather's hit on Todd Heap. But what happens when a ref ejects or suspends someone for a questionable hit? A whole new storm will blow into town.

We all want players to be safe, and dirty hits can't be tolerated but the NFL might have let this go too far to do anything about it. Trying to teach everyone how to tackle differently, and less effectively for some, after they've succeed doing it another way is ludicrous. On top of that, each person has a different opinion on what's a dirty hit. Policing egregious hits and helmet-to-helmet contact will be an arduous task, as will maintaining the health of the players and the integrity of the league.

Fix Sunday Ticket Now

NFL Sunday Ticket is a wonderful thing but it's a rip off and a monopoly. Way too much for one house. They need to make it cheaper and give it to all other providers. Why does DirectTV get to horde it? I'd like the anti-trust guys who looked into Microsoft to look into this. Let more people enjoy a reasonably priced product. Thirty bucks a month, that's half of what it is now. The whole season for $120 - done.

This has gotta be connected to the potential lockout some way. Too much money going one place. Figure this broadcasting problem out along with the black-out and lack of stadium participation. All this is tied up together with the rest of the billions of dollars that might shut this thing down next year.

Let me say this: I've put my head in the sand on this lockout thing. I don't buy it, don't want to hear about it, don't believe it. Only when it's actually shut down will I buy it. These owners and player representatives are smart, based on the positions they hold, they have to be. So how could they be dumb enough to shut down the most popular league in sports?

BUT THE POINT WAS.... you don't need Sunday Ticket some weeks. Not if you're in the Des Moines/Central Iowa region tomorrow. The four best games are on the locals.

No. 4: Giants at Colts - NBC Sunday night
I'm not into the Manning Bowl hype but would like to see where these teams are at. I'll take the Colts here.

No. 3: Bears at Cowboys - FOX 12:00
If the Cowboys start 0-2 people will be up in arms. The Bears will show their true colors here. I'm going with Bum's son, like everyone else.

No. 2: Dolphins at Vikings - CBS 12:00
Dolphins are an intriguing team. I like watching their personnel and Sparano on the sidelines, yelling. Home opener in Minnesota. The Favre and Chili Show is back in town! Take the Vikings.

No. 1: Patriots at Jets - CBS 3:15
Seems like everyone is taking the Pats here but I'm going Jets. I'm with the home team in a bitter division rivalry. I haven't been convinced the Pats are back to '07 form after one game against the Bengals, who played like dogs in the first half and gave away the game easy and early. Jets run it better, play tough D and squeak out a close one, 16-13.

The best game I don't get: Ravens at Bengals. Division game - means a lot to both teams. Cincinnati can't fall in that 0-2 hole. If so, they'll never get out. The other division game, only 3 this weekend, is Bucs at Panthers. Hard-hitting NFC South action. I'm going Ravens and Panthers in those two.

Other notables:
Texans at Redskins - which team is for real? Either? Redskins to win
Steelers at Titans - Pittsburgh is dinged up and Titans could be rolling this year. Titans win at home.

Vikings Need Jackson

Vincent Jackson is available. If traded by next Wednesday he will only miss four games instead of six. Teams should be on this like Rex Ryan on a bag of peanut M&Ms.



Pick him up!

 San Diego won't make it easy and I doubt they want to move him at all. He would have to sit out a total of five games with the Chargers, and based on his holdout and adamant stance, he doesn't want to play there. So if San Diego does want a first-round and later-round pick for him, the Vikings should do it. Here's why:

1)  His $9 million contract is chump change to the Wilfs. They threw more money at Favre this year for the hell of it. They were paying Sage Rosenfels $4 mil to be inactive on gamedays.

2)  They don't even use their first-round picks. Last year they just gave Detroit Jahvid Best by passing on their late first-round pick. Best scored two touchdowns in his first game. If they got Jackson, it would be another high-twenty pick anyway. If it's the 2012 first-rounder they want, fine. You'll need a receiver who makes the quarterback better, not the other way around, at that point anyway.

3) We don't know the health status of Sidney Rice. Everyone assumes he'll be 100 percent when he comes back. That's a big assumption. Just like thinking he could get through the season without having surgery in the first place, which backfired in training camp. Harvin will most likely miss a few games here and there. His migraines are allegedly "under control" but is on the injury report already with a hip.

4)  Bernard Berrian, Greg Camarillo and Greg Lewis cannot carry your passing game. Berrian can't play, Lewis can't even get on the field with this crew and Camarillo is still learning the offense. They need major help.

5)  With the four game suspension, and a bye in Week 4, there will be plenty of time for Jackson to learn the system and get comfortable with Favre.

6)  The addition of Jackson may bring Favre out of the depressed, my-receivers-suck state he's in. It's like he's about to cry every time he talks about the passing game. Jackson is a top-5 receiver with a good QB. He's better than Rice, who Favre cries about not being there. Imagine Jackson on one side, Rice on the other, Shaincoe hangin' out down the middle and Harvin in the slot. Very tough.

7)  Minnesota must do something to improve on last year. They can't rest on last year's success.

8)  Finally, I'm under the assumption the Vikings are trying to win a Super Bowl NOW. Favre is done after this year, therefore eliminating the Vikings from contention next year (based on their QB status). That means they need to do everything they can this year, which means trading for a premiere receiver. That may mean over paying slightly, but this is the last chance for a while in Minnesota. Two first-rounders maybe too much, but Mark Wilf and Rick Spielman need to find a way to make it happen.

National Over-Reaction League

The most wonderful week of the year has now come and gone. The NFL is back in full swing, and it's a glorious sight. And with that comes the over-reactions to every team's win or loss each week.

Glenn Dorsey played great last night

Let's look at the four "upsets." Kansas City over San Diego, Washington over Dallas, Seattle over San Francisco and Houston over Indianapolis.

All were somewhat unexpected but were they really that surprising? All were divisional games won by the home team. As Brian Billick reminded viewers during another near/shouldabeen upset, Detroit/Chicago, winning a division game on the road is "the hardest thing in sports."

With those wins come the over-reactions by the fans and media. "Dallas won't win a game!" "Look at how great the Chiefs are!" "It's the Texans' year to get over on the Colts!" "Pete Carroll is a genius!"

There are certain truths to all the over-reactions from the games. Dallas did play like garbage. But they probably just need a little more time to knock the rust off. The Colts defense just got ran over to the tune of a NFL record (first player to go over 200 yards and 3 TDs in the opener). But those games meant more to the Redskins and Texans than vice-versa.

Kansas City made some big, splash plays on special teams, had a long run and its defense looked much improved but they passed for just 68 yards. KC converted 1 of 11 third downs. They were outgained 389-197 on offense. San Diego was missing three of its best players in the middle of a downpour. Malcolm Floyd slipped twice at the goal line in the final minute that may have tied the game.

Oh, well. A win is a win. Kudos to the Chiefs for getting it done. They made more plays than the Chargers. But let's not put the Chiefs in the playoffs just yet. Same goes for the Texans and Seahawks. To use an old, over-used cliche "there's a lot of football to be played."

Despite the over-reactions being a bit much and sometimes off-base, it once again shows the power of the NFL. Each game means so much, even game one. The passion and pride generated is why we love this league. A win in Week 1 may not get a team to the Super Bowl but it sure feels like it can.

NFC North Preview

People could argue this is the best division in football. I could be one of those people. This year features two premiere teams, an underachieving, highly-scrutinized team and a team that went 0-16. All areas are covered. At least the Lions appear to be trying now.

GREEN BAY 12-4

Rodgers - MVP?

A lot of signs are pointing to the Pack this year. The Aaron Rodgers discussion is over. There's no real doubt he has what it takes. Playoff wins are a must to put him in the elite group but because he played so well in last year's loss you can determine he's not a Romo, a player who folds up shop come playoff time.

The Green Bay offense will be firing on all cylinders with a healthy line. With any resemblance of a running game and adequate time, Rodgers will hurt you with precision down the field. Taking sacks has been an issue for years with Rodgers. Taking away his primary read allows more time for the pass rush to get there. Well-timed blitzes can work, as it did for Arizona in last year's playoff loss. Speaking of that ...

Giving up 51 points in a playoff game demands attention be paid to the defense in the offseason. Attention was paid. Unfortunately it was the wrong kind and it resulted in top-notch nose tackle Johnny Jolly being arrested and getting suspended the entire season. Last year's top-ten pick B.J. Raji will have to fill the spot. Aaron Kampman is no longer on the end after struggling to find an effective spot in last year's new scheme.

It will be the second year in Dom Capers' 3-4 defense. It has shown the ability to get pressure and force turnovers. The corners are getting older and Al Harris is still recovering from his spleen injury and starts the year on the PUP list.

The defense won't have to do much. Rodgers and company will cruise through the regular season and into the playoffs. It could be an MVP year for Rodgers.

MINNESOTA 10-6

Does he even care this year?

Brett Favre is back but doesn't look the least bit interested in being there. He's spent much of his time this preseason talking about how there's no way he plays as well as he did last year. How everything went right and there's no shot it can happen like that again. He's right but does he need to be so focused on letting everyone know a letdown is coming?

The Sidney Rice loss will hurt slightly but people must remember Favre turned him into a Pro Bowler. He clearly has the tools and ability but without someone putting it on him down the field consistently, he's just another guy. Greg Camarillo will be a nice addition for the receivers. Hopefully Percy Harvin will be on the field each week. On top of the migraines, he's always taking huge hits. He's one of the toughest young players in the league.

Adrian Peterson must prove he belongs in the upper echelon of running backs again. His fumbling has become a major problem and team have shown the ability to shut him down. Defensively, the Vikings will use the same formula they always have - rely on the front four to cause havoc and stop the run. Getting E.J. Henderson back at LB will be big for Minnesota.

The Vikings still have a very solid team, it will just depend on Favre's motivation. The schedule isn't nearly as easy as last year's, especially the beginning. If Favre loses interest, or his problems with Chili continue to fester, it could be a disappointing year in the Twin Cities.

CHICAGO 7-9

A day Bears fans may wish to forget

The Bears have been swimming in mediocrity for the last three years and fans shouldn't expect it to change this year. Despite some impressive moves in the offseason, notably signing Julius Peppers for $91 million, the Bears fate lies in Jay Cutler's hands. And that doesn't inspire confidence.

Cutler threw a league-high 26 interceptions last year. While the receiving corps is average at best, Cutler hasn't shown the signs of being a leader so far in his career. He needs to make the receivers better, not blame them for inexperienced mistakes.

Enter Mike Martz as offensive coordinator. This could be a volatile combination. Cutler has proven to be a difficult personality to deal with and mixing with Martz may cause additional problems. Martz will demand a lot, and Cutler hasn't been able to live up to high expectations in the past.

Teaming Peppers with Tommie Harris on the right side of the defensive line creates a tough combo. The linebackers must pull their weight but team leader Brian Urlacher, who missed all of last season, has already went down in the preseason. His time could be up as a top LB. Rod Marinelli is running the defense this year and will need a lot of big plays and consistency to stay in games.

Lovie Smith will be on the hot seat all year. Chicago is desperate for a winner and continue to have high expectations with its new acquisitions. The Bears will be competitive, just not to the tune its fans would like.

DETROIT 4-12

This needs to be avoided

After making history in 2008, the Lions and Jim Schwartz began the climb out of the deepest hole any franchise had ever been in. Last year was rocky, to be expected with a depleted roster, rookie QB and first-year head coach, but they scraped together two wins. Another productive offseason and draft should get the Lions a few more wins this year.

Matthew Stafford will be expected to be much improved in his second campaign. He will have to cut down on interceptions and stay healthy. Detroit picked up a few pieces in WR Nate Burlson, TE Tony Scheffler and draft pick RB Jahvid Best. All will help the offense and free up Calvin Johnson to make plays.

Schwartz went out and got Kyle Vanden Bosch and drafted Ndamukong Suh to sure up a very weak defensive line. No one gave up more points last year than the Lions (494) and will have to dramatically improve in order to have a chance. Look for another year of growth from Detroit.

AFC North Preview

BALTIMORE 11-5

Rice can do it all

The Ravens have everything in place to legitimately contend for a Super Bowl. Picking up two veteran, savvy receivers in Anquan Boldin and T.J. Houshmandzadeh will help Joe Flacco and the passing game. The Ravens haven't had this type of talent in the receiving corps in quite some time. The defense still has Ray Lewis but will be missing Ed Reed for at least the first six games.

Even with the new receivers, the Ravens will try to pound the ball with Ray Rice, who has emerged as a premiere back in the league. His pass-catching ability rivals any starting running back and his bowling-ball stature and speed make him very difficult to deal with. Flacco must continue his progression up the ranks of NFL QBs by making good decisions and not turning the ball over.

Losing Ed Reed will certainly hurt the Ravens, but how much? You can't replace him but you can try to cover up the loss by increasing the pass rush. Lewis will have the defense playing with its hair on fire regardless but they will need to avoid getting burned over the top.

The Ravens' nose tackle, Haloti Ngata, is one of the best in the game. Absolutely massive, (6'4", 340 lbs) he has the quickness and foot speed to be as disruptive and dominating as anyone at the position.

The Ravens are in the driver's seat in the AFC North and, with a healthy Reed, should be disappointed with anything less than a trip to the conference championship game.

PITTSBURGH 10-6

Polamalu's return is critical for Pittsburgh

Facing challenges and situations they wish didn't exist, the Steelers have a lot to prove this year. Missing the playoffs last year turned out to be the tip of the iceberg. Another embarrassing, reprehensible off-field incident by Ben Roethlisbeger has him suspended for the first four games.  Dennis Dixon will be asked to play caretaker. If the Steelers can stay afloat in Big Ben's absence, they should have enough to make it back to the playoffs.

Big Ben will be driven and motivated to succeed after the general public has turned on him and insulted him every way possible (deservedly so.)  He is still a top-notch quarterback who must earn back the fans' and team's trust and admiration, if only on the field. Cutting Santonio Holmes will hurt, even though he too would miss the first four games. Other receivers must step up.

Troy Polamalu missing 11 games is the major reason for last year's defensive letdown. With him back the defense will improve naturally. They must get back to resembling the defense from two years ago.

The Steelers will have a chip on their shoulder and a desire to prove they're a contender. Getting back to a more balanced attack on offense will be wise and holding on to leads late will be a must.

CINCINNATI 6-10

TO: A questionable move

This team has never performed when dealing with lofty expectations. The pattern has been make the playoffs and get complacent. The Bengals caught teams off guard and played exceptional defense. They went undefeated in the division, a remarkable accomplishment. All that does for them this year, however, is put a bigger target on their back.

The re-birth of Cedric Benson last year was refreshing. He showed people who called him a bust he is capable of playing at a high level. Will his motivation be as strong this year? The offseason moves at wide receiver were puzzling. Signing Antonio Bryant with a bum knee for $8 million and then cutting him during training camp. Signing TO, who no one else wanted.

The defense will have to play as well or better than last year for any type of success. Cincinnati is playing a division-winner's schedule and won't be sneaking up on anyone this year.  I considered bumping them up to seven wins but stuck to my early August prediction.

CLEVELAND 4-12

Still has his work cut out

The Holmgren Era began last season and it resulted in finishing the year 4-0. They've finally moved away from Brady Quinn and brought in Jake Delhomme and drafted Colt McCoy. Delhomme is coming off a horrible 2009 season but his experience will be a nice addition to this young offense.

Eric Mangini may be on his last go-round as a head coach. He still hasn't proven himself as a leader and his departure could be sooner than later. Holmgren was very busy in the offseason with roster moves and it may be a matter of time before he wants to coach his team himself.

The Browns have some scattered talent and proved last year they're capable of putting together a run. Holmgren is moving them in the right direction but needs more time. Overall, they don't have the numbers of quality players yet and will be finishing 4th yet again.

NFC East Preview

The rivalries are what carry this division, as it will be among the most watched and competitive divisions in football this year.

DALLAS 11-5

Once again the Cowboys have the talent to be one of the best teams in the league but it will come down to execution. They have the skill players on offense and defense to be considered the best in the league. However, the offensive line continues to be an issue with its protection and run blocking. With Romo established, three capable running backs and a receiving corps that gained Dez Bryant, the offense will go as far as the line can block.

The defensive line and pass rush will be at the top of the league again and the Cowboys will use it to generate turnovers. Wade Phillips' specialty is defense so expect another strong season from that side of the ball.

The Cowboys looked rusty in preseason, perhaps just biding their time. Either way, the Cowboys have a tough schedule and always get their opponent's best effort. Bum's son's laid-back approach can result in a let-down from time to time but, ultimately, the Cowboys should win the division. However, don't expect a home game in the Super Bowl.

NEW YORK 9-7

The Giants were a tale of two teams last year. Out the gate quickly at 5-0, they stumbled badly in the second half, especially on defense, going 3-8 after getting hit hard with injuries. Tom Coughlin and Eli Manning are anxious to get back to the playoffs but must get better line play on both sides of the ball.

The defense looked awful much of the time last year, allowing the second most points in the league. The Giants spent four draft picks on defense, including DE Jason Pierre-Paul with the 15th pick. The defensive line used to be the strong point of the team and will need to return there if the Giants are to be successful. Picking up S Antrel Rolle in free agency will be a great pick up on the back end.

New York must get back to a more formidable rushing attack to compete within this division. Manning is coming off his best year but needs a ground game to keep defenses honest. He was also sacked a career-high 30 times, so protection must improve.

The Giants will have its work cut out but should be able to improve from last year's disappointment.

WASHINGTON 8-8

Major turnover happened in DC this offseason, and not a moment too soon. The Redskins had become the butt of jokes during last year's forgettable 4-12 campaign. But now they have a veteran coach and veteran QB to lead the way.

Things have been tumultuous for the entire summer thanks to disgruntled employee Albert Haynesworth. His relationship with the new staff started bad and still hasn't improved. Haynesworth doesn't want to play nose tackle in Mike Shanahan's 3-4 defense and it appears to be a stalemate in the battle of wills that has gone on for months. The Redskins are still trying to trade Haynesworth and Shanahan has said he will not start the $100 million man opening weekend.

With McNabb now under center, the offense will dramatically improve. He's being looked at as a savior of sorts, but he must be protected and stay healthy to accomplish anything. The Redskins offensive line was very porous last year and must perform better to allow McNabb to distribute the ball. The running game also fell off with the lack of blocking up front and will need to be re-established this year. No. 4 overall pick OT Trent Williams can hopefully contribute immediately.

With new management and a proven quarterback now leading the 'Skins, dramatic improvement should be seen. Doubling last year's win total is well within range, as well as a run at the division title.

PHILADELPHIA 7-9

The Eagles are in the heart of a youth movement. Andy Reid will turn things over to Kevin Kolb to fill the shoes of McNabb. Kolb is unproven but has potential to do what Aaron Rodgers did in his first year after patiently waiting. Kolb will have the receiving weapons and experienced play-callers, but will have a tough challenge in such a competitive division.

DeSean Jackson has established himself as one of the most electrifying players in the league. Hopefully Kolb can throw the deep ball as well as McNabb because Jackson can fly past defenses. Kolb will need solid offensive line play and RB LeSean McCoy to build on his impressive rookie season carrying the ball.

The defense will be the question mark with a lot of holes to fill. They will blitz and harass the quarterback, as they always have, but may not have the manpower to be as effective as they have been in the past.

The Eagles have potential to compete in the NFC but will take a step back as its young players get accustomed to the NFL.

AFC East Preview

This will be an excellent division to watch all year. Expectations are extremely high in New York, New England is hungry, Miami is a tough team that will challenge for the division and Buffalo is......... playing a couple games in Toronto again this year.

NEW YORK 11-5

Bart Scott will lead another great defense

Last year's run into the AFC Championship game proved the Jets have what it takes. This year will be about consistency on offense. The Jets struggled at times last year, even Rex Ryan proclaimed they were out of the playoffs at one point. That consistency will revolve around QB Mark Sanchez's ability to make good decision.

The defense will carry the team again. Antonio Cromartie will be a good pick-up on the other side of Darrelle Revis, who finally will report to the team after holding out for five weeks. The Jets also signed Jason Taylor but shouldn't expect much from him. Losing Calvin Pace for 4-6 weeks will be a minor bump in the road. Having Kris Jenkins back in the middle will be as helpful as any of their free agency moves.

The offense will rely on its ground game to take away some pressure on Sanchez. Letting Thomas Jones go opens the door for Shonn Greene to be the full-time back. Jones was an established hard runner with multiple 1000 yard seasons and it will be interesting to see if Greene can fill his shoes. LT is starting his first season in a new locker room and his role will be limited but important. Relieving pressure on third downs and the goal line will be where LT can help.

Picking up Santonio Holmes, despite his four-game suspension, is a bold move that will pay-off for the Jets. Holmes is a Super Bowl MVP with game-changing ability. He'll provide the stability and sure-hands that Sanchez will need as the young QB navigates through a bumpy second year with Super Bowl expectations on his back.

The Jets have improved since last year but will still face certain struggles, as the offense continues to grow. The defense will lead them to a division title.

NEW ENGLAND 10-6

Looking for the 2007 magic again

Bill Belichick and Tom Brady are out to prove they are still the best at what they do. Last year's crushing playoff loss to Baltimore exposed the defense as a cause for concern. With the offense back on track and Brady's knee further along, the Pats should have the firepower to ensure another trip to the playoffs.

Brady has Welker back quickly from a torn ACL and its hard to know how good he's feeling. He looks to be nearly fully recovered. Moss is in a contract year and they drafted a big TE in the second round, Rob Gronkowski, who has looked good this preseason. All signs for another impressive passing attack in New England. The running game will be by-committee again and provide only what's necessary.

The defense is the question mark. DE Ty Warren is out for the season, which is a major blow. Belichick will need young/new players to step up. The secondary must improve from last year. They drafted a CB, Devin McCourty, with the first round pick.

The Patriots will have another productive, playoff-run season. The pressure will continue to mount among fans desperate for the Pats' return to glory. They will have a good shot this year.

MIAMI 9-7

The Dolphins took a step back last year after 2008's division title but upgraded at some key positions and are poised to contend again this year.

Henne's in charge

Miami and third-year head coach Tony Sparano will continue with what has worked, the running game. Using Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown out of the Wildcat or power sets, the Dolphins will establish themselves on the ground to set-up Chad Henne in the passing game. The air attack will improve this year with the signing of Brandon Marshall, who will provide Henne the number one receiver that he so sorely needed last year. Marshall's size and ability will instantly bolster Miami's passing game.

The defense struggled at times last year and finished ranked 25th in points allowed. They let Joey Porter and Jason Taylor go, but brought in Karlos Dansby from Arizona. They spent first and second round picks on front-seven players. Sparano knows his defense must improve if he wants another shot at the playoffs, which is why he brought in Mike Nolan to coordinate the unit.

Miami will challenge within this tough division and could surprise people this year.

BUFFALO 3-13

Spiller will excite

The Bills have a new coach, Chan Gailey, a new running back, CJ Spiller, and a new defensive formation, the 3-4. Unfortunately, the new changes won't produce many wins this year in Buffalo.

The offense will continue to struggle with Trent Edwards. Between him and Ryan Fitzpatrick, the Bills need more production under center. Spiller looks to be an exciting player but will be asked to do a lot. Staying healthy will need to be the concern for him. It will be interesting to see how the Bills perform under its new coaches but the lack of talent and depth will be the factor.

AFC South Preview

The AFC South is a solid division from top to bottom. All four teams are viable and competitive year-in and year-out. History has taught us the Colts will make the playoffs and the Texans won't, while the Titans and Jaguars will fight around to varying degrees of success. That's been the story of this division and it will repeat again this year.

INDIANAPOLIS 12-4

Another stellar regular season for the Colts

It's like clockwork. Peyton Manning, Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark. No running game - it's just for show. Year after year after year. Expect more of the same. The only question will be the offensive line. Some new players will get the nod this year and veterans are getting older, but Manning is too smart to let that slow down the offense. Only the refs, with a possible new rule, have a chance.

The defense can be suspect at times, but not enough to do any real damage. Bob Sanders, the 2007 Defensive Player of the Year, will be back after missing a lot of time over the past two seasons. His presence on the field is a major boost for the Colts. Hopefully Sanders can stay healthy but history tells us otherwise. LB Gary Brackett injured his arm in the preseason and Indianapolis will need its leading tackler at full strength. X-rays were negative on Brackett.

The Colts are on their way to another division title and legitimate Super Bowl aspirations. The regular season is just a formality for Manning and the Colts as they try to atone for many playoff disappointments.

TENNESSEE 9-7

Best in the league

Chris Johnson is the most exciting player in the league and says he's going for Dickerson's record again this year. Despite his confidence, CJ won't rush for 2000 yards again, but it won't be for lack of effort. Tennessee knows CJ and the running game is its money-maker but it also knows Vince Young must be effective and consistent all year in order for the Titans to contend for a playoff spot.

The Titans could have made the playoffs last year if they hadn't went back to Kerry Collins for six ill-fated games to start the season. They dug themselves out of an 0-6 hole to finish a respectable 8-8, losing only to Indianapolis and San Diego in the final 10 games.

Teams will scheme on trying to contain Johnson, no easy task, and demand Young beat them with quick decisions and accuracy. Young continues to improve and is poised to have a productive year as the full-time starter. He's put some off-the-field issues behind him and looks ready to lead the Titans to the playoffs, as he did in 2007.

Defensively, Tennessee struggled to start the year and its problems culminated in Week 6 with a 59-0 loss to New England. The line loses KyleVanden Bosch to Detroit but Tennessee is known for producing defensive linemen capable of performing well.

The playoffs are well within reach for Tennessee. Young's execution, Johnson's health and a consistent defense will be necessary for a postseason run.

HOUSTON 8-8

Will just miss playoffs again

The Texans have been trying to get over the hump for the past three years and still haven't been able to crack into the postseason. Matt Schuab established himself as a quarterback who can put up numbers but hasn't proven himself as a leader of a playoff team.

Schuab and Andre Johnson proved to be an elite combo, leading Houston to the league's No. 1 passing offense. However, its running game was a disappointment, ranking 30th in the league and averaging only 3.5 yards per carry. Second-year RB Arian Foster looks to break out this season after ending last year strong and producing in the preseason.

The defense will deal with the loss of CB Dunta Robinson to Atlanta and LB Brian Cushing to a four-game suspension. Mario Williams will continue to add to his sack numbers. He's impressive rushing off the end.

Houston will have a decent team but will continue to struggle in its own division. The Colts have won 15 of the last 16 meetings against them and they open against each other in Houston. The Jags were able to get two from them last year and the Titans always get one from them. It's still not time to see Houston in the playoffs.

JACKSONVILLE 7-9

Del Rio needs wins to stay

A very tough team to figure out over the last few years. Jack Del Rio will have them playing as hard-nosed and gritty as any in the league but, unfortunately, toughness and grit alone don't result in wins. And at times last year, Del Rio's message wasn't surfacing at all. (example: The 41-0 loss at Seattle and 35-7 loss at New England were embarrassing.) Del Rio's time in Jacksonville could be coming to an end if he can't get the Jags going in the right direction.

David Garrard has consistently went downhill after his 2007 breakout year. His starting days are on thin ice, and he and Del Rio could share the same fate if things don't improve this year. Maurice Jones-Drew is one of the fiercest backs in the league and can produce running and catching the ball, but he's dealing with a leg injury in the preseason that could linger.

The Jags were last in the league with only 14 sacks last year, making it very tough on the secondary. They added two young pieces to the defensive line in the draft, as well as Aaron Kampman through free agency.

The Jags are young and were hit hard last year with injuries. They scrap and claw but it hasn't been enough to get the job done of late. Despite their efforts and attitude, they will have their hands full to stay out of the bottom of the division. Del Rio will be coaching for his job all year.