Packers or Bears? Tough Call

Best game of the year

Bears vs. Packers with a Super Bowl trip on the line is a dream match-up for more than just the great people of NFC North country. This is NFL history. The first playoff meeting for these storied franchise since 1941. Only the fourth time they've made the playoffs in the same year. As great as it will be to watch, it's even tougher to pick the winner.

If you pretend to know who's going to win this game, you're just kidding yourself. There's a laundry list of reasons why each team should win or lose. It's setting up for a memorable NFC Championship game. I can't recall a game I've personally been more intrigued to watch.

Why the Bears Will Win:

• Soldier Field. In a match-up this close, the home team will have an edge. While the Packers have spent much of the week saying the field conditions are the "worst in the NFL," the Bears are used to it. Put on the right cleats.
• Bears Defense. Clearly one of the best in the league, again. The ability to pressure with just the four down linemen will cause problems for Aaron Rodgers, who has exploited teams who must blitz all year. Julius Peppers could be MVP of the game. Briggs, Urlacher and Co. will stop the run and put even more pressure on Rodgers to do it himself in cold, windy conditions. The Packers struggled to move the ball on them both time they played this year, once when the Bears had nothing to play for.
• Jay Cutler and Mike Martz. This combo continues to impress with good play-calling and excellent execution. Chicago's screen game, with Matt Forte, will keep the hard-blitzing Packers' defense off balance. A veteran like Martz will be able to scheme on the Dom Capers' defense better than most.
• Special Teams. Devin Hester is the best return man in the history of the game. The Packers are known to give up big plays on special teams. A lot of pressure falls on the Packers' coverage teams.
• They seem to have the Packers' number. Beat them at home on a late field goal and shut them down in the last game of the season before giving up a late touchdown on the road. The Bears' strengths match up well with against the Packers.
• Underdog. No one outside of Chicago and Bears fans think they can win. Vegas has Packers by 3.5. People haven't given the Bears credit all year (I'm guilty). They proved everyone wrong by making the playoffs, winning the division and being in this position. The masses will be against them again with Green Bay and Rodgers playing at such a high level right now. As we continue to see in the NFL, the team people don't give a chance rise up and shoves it in their face.

Will the stellar play continue?

Why the Packers Will Win:

• Aaron Rodgers. No one is playing at a higher level right now. After the Atlanta beat down, people were saying how it was the greatest game ever by a Packer QB. Rodgers is driven by the need to prove he can do it better than Favre, and Packers fans want that just as bad. He dismissed the foolish rap of not being able to win a playoff game with two huge road wins. The accuracy, athleticism, scrambling and composure are putting Rodgers into the top-tier level of NFL quarterbacks. With a Super Bowl win, or even appearance, no one will doubt he belongs in that category.
• Packers Defense. The blitz will be in Cutler's face all game long. The Bears must account for Clay Matthews on every play because he is coming and he is relentless. Cutler was sacked nine times in the two meetings in the regular season. With less time to throw, Cutler will have to avoid Tramon Williams, who single-handedly crushed the Falcons' hopes with two back-breaking interceptions. The Packers were second in the league in points allowed and the Bears were 21st in points scored.

Green Bay must turn Cutler into "Bad Jay"

Wildcards:

• Cutler. Could be due for a stinker. Consistency has always been the issue. He's only got one playoff game under his belt and it was against a sub-.500 team that shouldn't have been there. It's a feast-or-famine situation with Cutler. It wouldn't surprise anyone if he had three picks, or if he throws three touchdowns. I'll need to see it to believe it with him.
• Mike McCarthy. He's been known to come with a dud in big games too many times. His clock management skills have widely ridiculed. His special teams will give up huge plays and his offense and play-calling have already been shut down by the Bears D twice.
• Motivation. I have to think the Bears have more with everyone picking against them and being at home. But the Packers have plenty in their own right. This is the true wildcard to the game. When everyone is going with one team (Packers), I cringe. Never seems to work out that way, i.e. Seahawks v Saints, Patriots v Jets.

I've debated the winner of this game all week. It seems after that breakdown I would be favoring the Bears. Not necessarily but I know they can win this game for those reasons. I've doubted the Bears and thought the Packers were the better team all year. The Bears had an easy road, but if you look at it, the Packers regular season road wasn't much tougher. However, they've proven themselves in the playoffs. The Bears beat the Seahawks. Despite my doubts, the Bears have proved me wrong time and time again. And they will have to do it one more time. I'm going with my head instead of the feeling that's been creeping into my gut this week. Packers 17 Bears 16. Prove me wrong again, Chicago.

AFC Championship prediction: Steelers 20 Jets 13. I really like the Steelers here. Big Ben, the defense and I don't see the Jets beating them twice at Pittsburgh in the same year. 

NFC North Preview

People could argue this is the best division in football. I could be one of those people. This year features two premiere teams, an underachieving, highly-scrutinized team and a team that went 0-16. All areas are covered. At least the Lions appear to be trying now.

GREEN BAY 12-4

Rodgers - MVP?

A lot of signs are pointing to the Pack this year. The Aaron Rodgers discussion is over. There's no real doubt he has what it takes. Playoff wins are a must to put him in the elite group but because he played so well in last year's loss you can determine he's not a Romo, a player who folds up shop come playoff time.

The Green Bay offense will be firing on all cylinders with a healthy line. With any resemblance of a running game and adequate time, Rodgers will hurt you with precision down the field. Taking sacks has been an issue for years with Rodgers. Taking away his primary read allows more time for the pass rush to get there. Well-timed blitzes can work, as it did for Arizona in last year's playoff loss. Speaking of that ...

Giving up 51 points in a playoff game demands attention be paid to the defense in the offseason. Attention was paid. Unfortunately it was the wrong kind and it resulted in top-notch nose tackle Johnny Jolly being arrested and getting suspended the entire season. Last year's top-ten pick B.J. Raji will have to fill the spot. Aaron Kampman is no longer on the end after struggling to find an effective spot in last year's new scheme.

It will be the second year in Dom Capers' 3-4 defense. It has shown the ability to get pressure and force turnovers. The corners are getting older and Al Harris is still recovering from his spleen injury and starts the year on the PUP list.

The defense won't have to do much. Rodgers and company will cruise through the regular season and into the playoffs. It could be an MVP year for Rodgers.

MINNESOTA 10-6

Does he even care this year?

Brett Favre is back but doesn't look the least bit interested in being there. He's spent much of his time this preseason talking about how there's no way he plays as well as he did last year. How everything went right and there's no shot it can happen like that again. He's right but does he need to be so focused on letting everyone know a letdown is coming?

The Sidney Rice loss will hurt slightly but people must remember Favre turned him into a Pro Bowler. He clearly has the tools and ability but without someone putting it on him down the field consistently, he's just another guy. Greg Camarillo will be a nice addition for the receivers. Hopefully Percy Harvin will be on the field each week. On top of the migraines, he's always taking huge hits. He's one of the toughest young players in the league.

Adrian Peterson must prove he belongs in the upper echelon of running backs again. His fumbling has become a major problem and team have shown the ability to shut him down. Defensively, the Vikings will use the same formula they always have - rely on the front four to cause havoc and stop the run. Getting E.J. Henderson back at LB will be big for Minnesota.

The Vikings still have a very solid team, it will just depend on Favre's motivation. The schedule isn't nearly as easy as last year's, especially the beginning. If Favre loses interest, or his problems with Chili continue to fester, it could be a disappointing year in the Twin Cities.

CHICAGO 7-9

A day Bears fans may wish to forget

The Bears have been swimming in mediocrity for the last three years and fans shouldn't expect it to change this year. Despite some impressive moves in the offseason, notably signing Julius Peppers for $91 million, the Bears fate lies in Jay Cutler's hands. And that doesn't inspire confidence.

Cutler threw a league-high 26 interceptions last year. While the receiving corps is average at best, Cutler hasn't shown the signs of being a leader so far in his career. He needs to make the receivers better, not blame them for inexperienced mistakes.

Enter Mike Martz as offensive coordinator. This could be a volatile combination. Cutler has proven to be a difficult personality to deal with and mixing with Martz may cause additional problems. Martz will demand a lot, and Cutler hasn't been able to live up to high expectations in the past.

Teaming Peppers with Tommie Harris on the right side of the defensive line creates a tough combo. The linebackers must pull their weight but team leader Brian Urlacher, who missed all of last season, has already went down in the preseason. His time could be up as a top LB. Rod Marinelli is running the defense this year and will need a lot of big plays and consistency to stay in games.

Lovie Smith will be on the hot seat all year. Chicago is desperate for a winner and continue to have high expectations with its new acquisitions. The Bears will be competitive, just not to the tune its fans would like.

DETROIT 4-12

This needs to be avoided

After making history in 2008, the Lions and Jim Schwartz began the climb out of the deepest hole any franchise had ever been in. Last year was rocky, to be expected with a depleted roster, rookie QB and first-year head coach, but they scraped together two wins. Another productive offseason and draft should get the Lions a few more wins this year.

Matthew Stafford will be expected to be much improved in his second campaign. He will have to cut down on interceptions and stay healthy. Detroit picked up a few pieces in WR Nate Burlson, TE Tony Scheffler and draft pick RB Jahvid Best. All will help the offense and free up Calvin Johnson to make plays.

Schwartz went out and got Kyle Vanden Bosch and drafted Ndamukong Suh to sure up a very weak defensive line. No one gave up more points last year than the Lions (494) and will have to dramatically improve in order to have a chance. Look for another year of growth from Detroit.