Don't Bet On It

The NFL is great at making you think you know something only to be proven 100% wrong hours later. Picking games makes you question your sanity at times. You try and spot trends and break down the matchups but sometimes it just doesn't make sense.

"You never know," Bill Belichick said after beating Pittsburgh on the road last month, a game few thought New England would win at the time. "If you know what's going to happen in this league you can make a lot of money."

It's an old line but it's never been more accurate. Vegas must be cleaning up this year. The Bears and Chiefs are division champs? That's a situation I didn't believe until I saw it, and I still scratch my head. The Vikings really didn't beat the Eagles last night, did they? It's been a crazy year, to say the least.

Let's just talk about picking winners because I don't have the disposable income to put money down on a line, and don't want to throw it down the drain. If you bet on the favorite (based on the Vegas line) last week, you would have lost seven games. I would say that's a little above average for each week. In Week 15 there were five "upsets."

While it may be futile to try and put a finger on one particular aspect of a team on whether they win or lose, I've done just that: Look at the coach. Sure, the players win the game but there are too many players to take into consideration. The quarterback is a major factor, as well as injuries and home or away. But when I'm desperate for a winner, I look at who is leading that team and how have the been going lately.

If I was smart, I could have cashed in big time at the start of the year on the Cowboys and Vikings. That was the coach. How about the 49ers? Don't you wish you would have know Singletary had absolutely no clue what he was doing at the beginning of the year? Coaching has certainly played significant roles in the Bears (Martz) and Chiefs (coordinators, plus Haley getting players to buy in) success. And in the demise of the Cowboys, Vikings and Broncos.

Of all the qualities a successful NFL head coach must have, none is more important than the ability to MOTIVATE. That's number 1. The second and nearly as important is scheme. It's based on communication and knowledge. Can you get these guys to play with their hair on fire within a scheme that will outsmart your opponent?

Andy Reid couldn't last night. There's not one thing that pointed to the Vikings winning that game. Philadelphia was hot, Vikings were starting a rookie and had nothing to play for, on the road. It must have been the messed up schedule. I blame Reid (and Vick, of course) for not having them focused on beating a lowly Minnesota team. Teams have feasted on that defense. Philly leads the league in offense. It just doesn't make sense.

I'll go back to Singletary. He's a "motivator" and that's it. As far as I can tell he has no ability to scheme, judge talent or make decisions. When that's the case, you must have coordinators surrounding you with the knowledge the head coach lacks. That wasn't the case in San Fran this year. Then, when things start to go south, you can't continue to berate your players publicly and privately, while not being able to make a decision on who to play at quarterback. Players will tire of your "motivating" style and begin to shut down. That's what happened in Dallas, Minnesota, and Denver. The team tires of the head coach's crap and whether it's sub-consciously or not, the won't play hard or well.

Tony Sparano is another great "motivating" head coach. He is fiery and seems to communicate well with players and media (another thing Singletary lacked.) But his teams are impossible to read. I've struggled the most trying to figure out the Dolphins this year. I'm 5-10 picking Miami games. Of course you could say, "Well look at the quarterback situation." Sparano needs to work the run game and defense, to compensate for a quarterback who should be further along. He also shouldn't have Chad Pennington as a back-up, a guy who is so fragile at this point he was injured falling down after two snaps. The Dolphins are 1-7 at home this season, for goodness sake. That's a head coaching problem but Sparano still isn't in the same category as Singletary.

Another coach to look at is Tom Coughlin. He's a guy who tends to rub players the wrong way at times. After the Eagles-game debacle, the team clearly wasn't up to the task in Green Bay Sunday. They were steam-rolled and Eli Manning looked awful. The defense was just as bad.

The NFL is so hard to read it's almost better if you don't use any logic. Norval Turner is another shining example of how to lose games that should easily be won. Especially at the start of the year. It's just doesn't make any sense some times. And that's what's great about the NFL. There's no rhyme or reason for some games, and like they say, "that's why you play the games." Because "you never know."

My 2010 record picking games: 147-93
2009 record: 171-85
2008 record: 170-86

Just goes to show the more I think I know, the less I actually do. I can't wait to try and pick playoff games.