National Over-Reaction League

The most wonderful week of the year has now come and gone. The NFL is back in full swing, and it's a glorious sight. And with that comes the over-reactions to every team's win or loss each week.

Glenn Dorsey played great last night

Let's look at the four "upsets." Kansas City over San Diego, Washington over Dallas, Seattle over San Francisco and Houston over Indianapolis.

All were somewhat unexpected but were they really that surprising? All were divisional games won by the home team. As Brian Billick reminded viewers during another near/shouldabeen upset, Detroit/Chicago, winning a division game on the road is "the hardest thing in sports."

With those wins come the over-reactions by the fans and media. "Dallas won't win a game!" "Look at how great the Chiefs are!" "It's the Texans' year to get over on the Colts!" "Pete Carroll is a genius!"

There are certain truths to all the over-reactions from the games. Dallas did play like garbage. But they probably just need a little more time to knock the rust off. The Colts defense just got ran over to the tune of a NFL record (first player to go over 200 yards and 3 TDs in the opener). But those games meant more to the Redskins and Texans than vice-versa.

Kansas City made some big, splash plays on special teams, had a long run and its defense looked much improved but they passed for just 68 yards. KC converted 1 of 11 third downs. They were outgained 389-197 on offense. San Diego was missing three of its best players in the middle of a downpour. Malcolm Floyd slipped twice at the goal line in the final minute that may have tied the game.

Oh, well. A win is a win. Kudos to the Chiefs for getting it done. They made more plays than the Chargers. But let's not put the Chiefs in the playoffs just yet. Same goes for the Texans and Seahawks. To use an old, over-used cliche "there's a lot of football to be played."

Despite the over-reactions being a bit much and sometimes off-base, it once again shows the power of the NFL. Each game means so much, even game one. The passion and pride generated is why we love this league. A win in Week 1 may not get a team to the Super Bowl but it sure feels like it can.

AFC West Preview

Over the past few years the AFC West has been consistent - one good-to-great team (San Diego), one middle-of-the-road team (Denver) and two bottom-feeders. The Chargers' stranglehold on the division will continue as the other three teams attempt to get back to relevance.

SAN DIEGO 12-4

Rivers is in the elite group.

No surprise here. San Diego will run away with this division for the fifth-consecutive year behind Philip Rivers and the Chargers' potent passing game. Rivers continues to establish himself as an elite quarterback and shows no signs of dropping off. He will be the unquestioned leader of the offense and team with the departure of LaDainian Tomlinson, who's presence in the locker room, according to sources, had worn thin.

San Diego must do something about Vincent Jackson, who still is demanding a new contract or a trade, and has been suspended for the first three games. There's no doubt the Chargers are better with Jackson, one of the league's top receivers, but will be able to make due without him, if necessary. Antonio Gates will continue his stellar career and Malcolm Floyd emerged last season. Legedu Naanee is a breakout candidate this year, as someone has to take Jackson's catches for as long as he's out. Another impact player could be first-round pick RB Ryan Mathews. He's an expected playmaker.

(Editor's note: This just in: The Chargers just got WR Patrick Crayton from the Cowboys.)

The defense made strides last year even without NT Jamal Williams, who was injured and has since signed with Denver. San Diego's 3-4 defense should produce a solid pass rush with linebackers Shuan Phillips and Larry English, and Shawne Merriman hopes to return to Pro Bowl form after battling through nagging injuries coming off a major knee operation in 2008.

The Chargers have shown signs of being a Super Bowl team over the past four seasons but continually fall short in the playoffs. This could be the year San Diego gets over the hump.

OAKLAND 6-10

Raider Nation, baby.

The Raiders will continue to improve and start to climb out of the abyss they've wallowed in for the last seven years. Oakland was able to pull out five wins last year despite being inept at the QB position for much of the year with JaMarcus Russell. The upgrade to Jason Campbell is certainly an improvement over Russell and Bruce Gradkowski and will boost the offense. Although Campbell struggled much of the time in Washington, he will be welcomed by this offense and team after the Russell era.

There still isn't many viable targets for Campbell outside of TE Zach Miller but perhaps some of the young, unproven receivers will fair better this season with a more accurate quarterback. Oakland will have to establish a running game, which means Darren McFadden must stay healthy.

Defensively, Oakland ranked seventh against the pass last year but struggled against the run. The defensive line must improve its play so new addition LB Kamerion Wimbley continue his strong preseason play and first-round pick LB Rolando McClain can be effective. A consistent pass rush will allow the secondary to make plays, particularly perhaps the league's best corner, Nnamdi Asomugha.

DENVER 5-11

Josh McDaniels enters his second-year at helm already decimated by injuries.

Yelling will be a theme.

Elvis Dumervil, the 2009 league-leader in sacks (17), may miss the entire season. Pro Bowl left tackle Ryan Clady is just getting back into the rotation after hurting his knee last spring in a basketball game. Denver's top-pick WR Demaryius Thomas has missed time amid reports concerning his surgically-repaired foot. Starting running backs Correll Buckhalter and Knowshon Moreno haven't been able to compete due to back and hamstring injuries, respectively. Newly-acquired LenDale White tore his Achilles tendon and will miss the entire season.

But injuries happen, and the season must go on. McDaniels and the Broncos will move forward but with limited success. After a blistering 6-0 start last year, they finished 2-8. They lost top receiver Brandon Marshall and his 101 catches, 1120 yards and 10 TDs. This will make things more challenging for Kyle Orton, who will continue his solid play. Orton will be steady and make fairly good decisions but losing Marshall will certainly effect his passing game. They also lost starting TE Tony Scheffler to the Lions.

Denver hopes DT Jamal Williams will bounce back from his season-ending tricep injury last year and make an impact like he did in San Diego for many years. Under another new defensive coordinator, Denver will have to get help from new players and try to keep things close.

Expect a sampling of Tim Tebow of this year to varied results. McDaniels clearly wants to use him in the future and will want to see what he can do. McDaniels has a vision and a plan, it will just take some time to execute it.

KANSAS CITY 5-11

Cassel needs to step it up.

The acquisitions of Charlie Weis and Romeo Crennel will add experience to the coaching staff but the Chiefs are still young and in need of more help on the lines. Jamaal Charles emerged as a legitimate threat, and the signing of Thomas Jones will only improve the backfield.

Under center, Chiefs fans are still waiting to see the Matt Cassel from New England in 2008. He faces a lot of pressure to perform and its still uncertain if he has what it takes to lead this young team. He will have to keep his interceptions down to give the Chiefs a shot.

Kansas City has used high draft picks and spent a lot of money on the defensive line but haven't seen the results. DT Glenn Dorsey and DE Tyson Jackson haven't lived up to their potential and must start realizing it if the Chiefs want to improve on its 30th-ranked defense. No. 5 overall pick S Eric Berry will need to learn on the fly and make an impact immediately.

Head coach Todd Haley still has work to do but appears to be moving in the right direction. 2011 may be the year for legitimate hopes for the Chiefs.

Norval Gets Tripped Up

I came out to a flat tire this morning. No big deal, I need the exercise walking to campus.

People are clamoring that most of the games in the playoffs have been "boring." Not really the case. The top seeds were the better team across the board and all of them played like it except for the Chargers, who looked like hot garbage. I'll give credit to the Jets. The best teams playing well isn't boring to me.

Norval Turner is back on the hot seat after that performance. Pro Bowler and "most accurate kicker in NFL history", Nate Kaeding, blew three attempts on Sunday. It'd be foolish to blame him entirely, but this isn't the first time he's missed big kicks in the playoffs against the Jets. Iowans need to step up in those situations, and when they don't, they must bounce back.

Rivers and company couldn't move the ball effectively and the Jets continued their improbable run deep into the playoffs. If you win at this point it's because you are the better team. The Jets proved that. San Diego was the only team on the bye that the media wasn't asking serious questions about coming into this weekend.

The Saints, Vikings and Colts all came out with something to prove. The Chargers looked complacent and content. They thought they could just show up and win, which has been their problem in the past.

GM A.J. Smith will have to decide what he wants to do with LT and his Electric Glide. Norv will return unless Cowher wants the gig. There isn't anybody else out there. For the same reason, Wade "Son of Bum" Phillips will also return.