Bad Signs, especially for the Dolphins

Sometimes you it's so obvious you have to trust the simplicity of it. You don't need to give it any more thought. It's clear. Trust the glaring signs.

Signs your NFL team is up against it this season.

Picking up where he left off last season. 

• You're answering questions about Brett Favre. Tony Sparano "isn't ruling anything out. Ok?" I'm sure he's not, and the media is dying to talk about Favre again, but why are they asking only Sparano? Miami is also the only team who really needed a QB that didn't land one. (I guess San Fran as well.) And Henne is already hearing the boos. 
• You're reportedly working out Tiki Barber. A double play for the Dolphins. They lose Ronnie Brown to the Eagles. Ricky Williams is finally at the end of the line and can finally walk away from the NFL, a day he no doubt cannot wait for. They clearly are desperate for a running back, which they desperately need to run the offense best suited for Sparano and Henne. 
• Your head coach is already on the hot seat. Hello again, Dolphins. Sparano was surprisingly retained by Miami after a rough 2010 season, where the Dolphins went 1-7 at home and ranked 29th in scoring. To go along with the Favre and Barber questions, Miami just signed 37-year-old Jason Taylor. They need help bad. Here's Sparano on all of this (courtesy of ESPN): "I can't rule anything out. OK? So, I mean, we don't rule anything out. I don't know how you want me to answer that. That'll be all over the news now too." ... "You know Tiki's age. We signed Jason Taylor. So we're going to flip over whatever rocks we think are necessary in this process. I don't want to say something that my feet are to the fire on."

The Dolphins are shooting distress flares all over Miami very early in the 2011 season. The Dolphins will be hard-pressed all year, and Sparano may be fired before the end of the season.

• BONUS SIGN: You signed Tarvaris Jackson to start at QB. This is an immediate red flag. You wonder if Pete Carroll has bothered to watch all the film of Tarvaris. Of course Dick Bevell has shown him all the good footage, not that it was extensive. The Seahawks will be better than some but not by much. Trying to find hope in Minnesota castaways is not a good sign. Sidney Rice will not live up to the expectations of his contract. At least they brought in The Cable Guy in case somebody needs their jaw broke.

(Photo credit: miamidolphins.com)

Mowdown in Miami

The Bears defense ran over a completely inept Tyler Thigpen-led offense to improve to a division-leading 7-3. The Dolphins didn't get past the Bears 35-yard line. They couldn't even get into position to bring out the field goal unit. The Dolphins were shutout at home for the first time since 2001. That's impressive considering the gang of misfits the Dolphins have been running out there at quarterback in the last 10 years.

Not many teams are going to lose to Miami last night. The team had no confidence in Thigpen, and it looked like he had no confidence in himself. The Bears defense deserves some credit but Thigpen's play was not competitive. Brandon Marshall didn't do him any favors by dropping two balls before tweaking his hamstring and leaving the game. Jake Long played with his shoulder in a harness. They were using a 3rd-string guard at center. On top of that, Sparano abandoned the run game from the git-go, placing even more pressure on Thigpen. Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams combined for 11 yards on only 6 carries. They were 0-5 on third down conversions.

The Bears are 7-3 and lead the division. How seriously should I take that record? It seems legitimate. Last night's shutout ensured the Bears will be in first place in the NFC North for at least one more week.

At face value, the Bears are a good team with with one of the best defenses in the league. If you look into each Bears game, you'll see a cause for concern. Look at the teams they've beat.

Carolina 1-8
Buffalo 1-8
Dallas 2-7
Detroit 2-7
Minnesota 3-6
Miami 5-5
Green Bay 6-3           Total: 20-45

Side note: Miami and Green Bay were decimated by injuries at the time.

You can only beat who's on your schedule. For that I will give the Bears credit. They are going out and getting it done 70 percent of the time and that's great in the NFL. The consistency is improving but let's wait a few more weeks before we crown them.

Bears remaining schedule: vs Philadelphia, @ Detroit, vs New England, @ Minnesota (Mon), vs NY Jets, @ Green Bay. Combined record: 31-23

Another Thing:
Let's compare the Bears to who I feel are the top teams in the NFC - Atlanta and Philadelphia.

Atlanta is 7-2. The record of opponent in wins is 29-34. Three wins over 6-3 teams.
Philadelphia 6-3: Record of those 6 wins: 27-27. And they beat Atlanta.

The Giants are suspect as well, like Chicago: They've only beat two teams over .500, and one is Seattle.

Fix Sunday Ticket Now

NFL Sunday Ticket is a wonderful thing but it's a rip off and a monopoly. Way too much for one house. They need to make it cheaper and give it to all other providers. Why does DirectTV get to horde it? I'd like the anti-trust guys who looked into Microsoft to look into this. Let more people enjoy a reasonably priced product. Thirty bucks a month, that's half of what it is now. The whole season for $120 - done.

This has gotta be connected to the potential lockout some way. Too much money going one place. Figure this broadcasting problem out along with the black-out and lack of stadium participation. All this is tied up together with the rest of the billions of dollars that might shut this thing down next year.

Let me say this: I've put my head in the sand on this lockout thing. I don't buy it, don't want to hear about it, don't believe it. Only when it's actually shut down will I buy it. These owners and player representatives are smart, based on the positions they hold, they have to be. So how could they be dumb enough to shut down the most popular league in sports?

BUT THE POINT WAS.... you don't need Sunday Ticket some weeks. Not if you're in the Des Moines/Central Iowa region tomorrow. The four best games are on the locals.

No. 4: Giants at Colts - NBC Sunday night
I'm not into the Manning Bowl hype but would like to see where these teams are at. I'll take the Colts here.

No. 3: Bears at Cowboys - FOX 12:00
If the Cowboys start 0-2 people will be up in arms. The Bears will show their true colors here. I'm going with Bum's son, like everyone else.

No. 2: Dolphins at Vikings - CBS 12:00
Dolphins are an intriguing team. I like watching their personnel and Sparano on the sidelines, yelling. Home opener in Minnesota. The Favre and Chili Show is back in town! Take the Vikings.

No. 1: Patriots at Jets - CBS 3:15
Seems like everyone is taking the Pats here but I'm going Jets. I'm with the home team in a bitter division rivalry. I haven't been convinced the Pats are back to '07 form after one game against the Bengals, who played like dogs in the first half and gave away the game easy and early. Jets run it better, play tough D and squeak out a close one, 16-13.

The best game I don't get: Ravens at Bengals. Division game - means a lot to both teams. Cincinnati can't fall in that 0-2 hole. If so, they'll never get out. The other division game, only 3 this weekend, is Bucs at Panthers. Hard-hitting NFC South action. I'm going Ravens and Panthers in those two.

Other notables:
Texans at Redskins - which team is for real? Either? Redskins to win
Steelers at Titans - Pittsburgh is dinged up and Titans could be rolling this year. Titans win at home.

AFC East Preview

This will be an excellent division to watch all year. Expectations are extremely high in New York, New England is hungry, Miami is a tough team that will challenge for the division and Buffalo is......... playing a couple games in Toronto again this year.

NEW YORK 11-5

Bart Scott will lead another great defense

Last year's run into the AFC Championship game proved the Jets have what it takes. This year will be about consistency on offense. The Jets struggled at times last year, even Rex Ryan proclaimed they were out of the playoffs at one point. That consistency will revolve around QB Mark Sanchez's ability to make good decision.

The defense will carry the team again. Antonio Cromartie will be a good pick-up on the other side of Darrelle Revis, who finally will report to the team after holding out for five weeks. The Jets also signed Jason Taylor but shouldn't expect much from him. Losing Calvin Pace for 4-6 weeks will be a minor bump in the road. Having Kris Jenkins back in the middle will be as helpful as any of their free agency moves.

The offense will rely on its ground game to take away some pressure on Sanchez. Letting Thomas Jones go opens the door for Shonn Greene to be the full-time back. Jones was an established hard runner with multiple 1000 yard seasons and it will be interesting to see if Greene can fill his shoes. LT is starting his first season in a new locker room and his role will be limited but important. Relieving pressure on third downs and the goal line will be where LT can help.

Picking up Santonio Holmes, despite his four-game suspension, is a bold move that will pay-off for the Jets. Holmes is a Super Bowl MVP with game-changing ability. He'll provide the stability and sure-hands that Sanchez will need as the young QB navigates through a bumpy second year with Super Bowl expectations on his back.

The Jets have improved since last year but will still face certain struggles, as the offense continues to grow. The defense will lead them to a division title.

NEW ENGLAND 10-6

Looking for the 2007 magic again

Bill Belichick and Tom Brady are out to prove they are still the best at what they do. Last year's crushing playoff loss to Baltimore exposed the defense as a cause for concern. With the offense back on track and Brady's knee further along, the Pats should have the firepower to ensure another trip to the playoffs.

Brady has Welker back quickly from a torn ACL and its hard to know how good he's feeling. He looks to be nearly fully recovered. Moss is in a contract year and they drafted a big TE in the second round, Rob Gronkowski, who has looked good this preseason. All signs for another impressive passing attack in New England. The running game will be by-committee again and provide only what's necessary.

The defense is the question mark. DE Ty Warren is out for the season, which is a major blow. Belichick will need young/new players to step up. The secondary must improve from last year. They drafted a CB, Devin McCourty, with the first round pick.

The Patriots will have another productive, playoff-run season. The pressure will continue to mount among fans desperate for the Pats' return to glory. They will have a good shot this year.

MIAMI 9-7

The Dolphins took a step back last year after 2008's division title but upgraded at some key positions and are poised to contend again this year.

Henne's in charge

Miami and third-year head coach Tony Sparano will continue with what has worked, the running game. Using Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown out of the Wildcat or power sets, the Dolphins will establish themselves on the ground to set-up Chad Henne in the passing game. The air attack will improve this year with the signing of Brandon Marshall, who will provide Henne the number one receiver that he so sorely needed last year. Marshall's size and ability will instantly bolster Miami's passing game.

The defense struggled at times last year and finished ranked 25th in points allowed. They let Joey Porter and Jason Taylor go, but brought in Karlos Dansby from Arizona. They spent first and second round picks on front-seven players. Sparano knows his defense must improve if he wants another shot at the playoffs, which is why he brought in Mike Nolan to coordinate the unit.

Miami will challenge within this tough division and could surprise people this year.

BUFFALO 3-13

Spiller will excite

The Bills have a new coach, Chan Gailey, a new running back, CJ Spiller, and a new defensive formation, the 3-4. Unfortunately, the new changes won't produce many wins this year in Buffalo.

The offense will continue to struggle with Trent Edwards. Between him and Ryan Fitzpatrick, the Bills need more production under center. Spiller looks to be an exciting player but will be asked to do a lot. Staying healthy will need to be the concern for him. It will be interesting to see how the Bills perform under its new coaches but the lack of talent and depth will be the factor.

Change of Scenery For Holmes, Marshall

First it was Santonio Holmes, now it's Brandon Marshall.

Two premiere, yet often troubled, receivers in the prime of their careers are moving on. Holmes to the Jets, Marshall to the Dolphins. If I'm either of those teams, I'm thinking "Jackpot!"

Sure, both have had their problems in the past. Holmes is in trouble right now, about to face a four-game suspension due to his refusal to give up blowing tree. But that looming suspension is what caused his price to go lower than expired beans at Save-A-Lot.

Picking up a 26-year-old Super Bowl MVP for a 5th-round pick is Christmas morning in Jets camp. Will he fail another drug test and face a year suspension? Possible but not probable. Did he need a change of scenery out of Pittsburgh? Most definitely.

Now the Steelers will have you believe that they were "sending a message." That they were taking a stand against this type of behavior, which included another alleged assault to his record. To a certain extent, maybe.

If they weren't already dealing with Big Ben's second alleged sexual assault they would have just dealt with Holmes' situation. They know they're a worse team without Holmes. But they can't get rid of Big Ben. Quarterbacks are more valuable than a receiver, that's just the way it is. Two incidents at the same time were too much for the Rooney's. They had to choose and they went with the receiver who was set to become a free agent at the end of the year.

Maybe Holmes was a cancer in the locker room, I don't know. If that's the case, a new locker room may be just what the doctor ordered.

I wonder about how many teams were interested in Holmes. If it was only the Jets, shame on the other 30 teams. I have a hard time believing nobody was willing to give up something better than 5th-round pick. I'd eat the four-game suspension and have him ready to go Week 5.

MARSHALL TO MIAMI

It must be give-away week in the NFL. Miami coming away with Brandon Marshall for two second-round picks confirms Tony Sparano is running things like Tony Soprano.

Not only do they get Marshall out of Denver, something he's wanted for years now, they hook him up with the fattest contract a receiver has ever received.

Marshall's had his share of run-ins with the law and team management in the past. The domestic abuse charges are always worrisome and cause for concern. One would hope those issues are a thing of the past, but after three different incidents, you wonder.

 The riffs with management always seemed to be about money. Well, that's no longer an issue. The next question there becomes, "Is he still motivated?" Only time will tell.

Parcells has pulled out the checkbook this off-season to get the Dolphins in the playoffs. Karlos Dansby and Marshall are big, high-priced pieces in place.  Sparano will have to keep everything and everyone in line.

The AFC East is going to be featured more than ever. (Minus the Bills.)