Weekend Rundown

1. College is great. I loved it. When you're there, you want to stay forever, avoid the real world, and hit the weekend kegger. We all know how great it is. You know what's even better than the college lifestyle? $50 million guaranteed. Andrew Luck decided to return for his senior year at Stanford instead of being the No. 1 pick in April's draft and cashing a check that would set up the rest of his life.

Good "Luck" with that decision......Hey-O!

Don't get me wrong, Luck can do whatever he wants and make his own decisions that are best for him and his family. But I don't want to hear about "finishing his engineering degree." That can easily be done at any time. If the NFL wants to give you millions and millions and go down in history as a number one pick, you grab that opportunity unless you're scared to take on the challenge. 

Maybe Andrew Luck and his family see a bigger picture that I don't. However, if I'm a starting Division I QB, my ultimate goal is to be a Pro Bowl, championship-winning NFL QB. That's my a childhood dream so when the NFL comes knocking, I answer the door. I don't say, "Maybe next year."

Luck can still be a great NFL QB. Maybe he'll get drafted into a better opportunity than he would have this year, but that's as unknown as if he'll stay healthy until next year's draft. Good luck topping this season, especially without Jim Harbaugh.....

2. Never have I seen a coach blow up on the scene like Harbaugh. Listening to the bidding war over him by NFL teams the past week, it would seem like he's already won multiple Super Bowl rings. He's already built up by the media to be the "next great head coach." The 49ers seem like a good choice, Harbaugh is from the Bay area, and the team isn't that bad. They should have won their division this year. The problem becomes finding a QB, and, in the meantime, getting something out of the Smiths (Alex and Troy) next year. 

Based on what his brother John is doing in Baltimore and the Stanford turnaround, Jim Harbaugh seems like he will be a dynamic coach. Joining the NFC West also helps a first-year coach.

3. The media circus that Rex Ryan likes to create is entertaining, if nothing else. This week he took another unwarranted shot at Tom Brady. Ryan, discussing today's matchup with the Colts, talked about how no one is like Peyton Manning, no one studies like him. Then he said, "I know Brady thinks he does but I think there's probably more help from Belichick with Brady than there is with Peyton Manning." Why does Rex bother firing him up? That's been proven not to work. He goes out of his way to take a shot at the league's soon-to-be MVP when it's a long shot the Jets will even be around to meet up with the Patriots again. The NFL can always use more rivalry, coach-on-opponent smack. With Rex around, there won't be any shortage of it.

4. When this blog started a year ago one of the first posts were NFL Playoff predictions. Here are my Wildcard predictions:

Saints over Seahawks - For obvious reasons.

Colts over Jets - The key for the Jets is Mark Sanchez, it always is. He plays a little better on the road but you won't see me picking against Peyton Manning at home in the first round anytime soon. 

Ravens over Chiefs - I like the experience the Ravens are bringing to this game. A lot of pressure on the young Chiefs to make something of this miraculous division title. The Ravens went into New England last year and smacked Brady and Belichick in the Wildcard round so I don't see them getting knocked out here by the Chiefs.

Eagles over Packers - Tough call. I'll take the Eagles at home, who rested up last week. Aaron Rodgers has a QB rating of 107 against the blitz so there are plenty of concerns for the Eagles. Rodgers needs this win badly for his career but the Eagles are the wrong matchup for him to get it. Mike Vick wants a playoff win even more and I see a big game from of him. When Vick is rolling, the Eagles might be the best team in the league.

NFL Season Prediction Recap

If this season should us anything it's that it hard to predict winners in this league. When I set out to make my first-ever preseason projections, I knew it was an uphill battle. I wanted to get some experience at projecting records, that way I could look back and see just how wrong I was. Gain a different perspective looking at the preseason next year. Some people don't want to bother looking in the past at meaningless prediction, but I think lessons can be learned.

Playoff teams correct: 8 of 12. Not too bad. (Green Bay, Atlanta, New Orleans, New England, New York Jets, Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Indianapolis) However, with a closer look, I correctly predicted only one division winner (Indianapolis). I put the NFC South, AFC North and AFC East in the wrong order of top-2 finishers.

Correct records: Only one: New York Jets 11-5. But, as mentioned, I thought they would win the division. I remember looking at Peter King's from 2009. He only got one record exactly correct that year so maybe that's all you can hope for because no one knows more about football than him. (That was sarcasm. Thank you.) Didn't check his this year.

One game off: Giants, Buffalo, Cleveland, Jacksonville, Seattle - Got one MORE win than I thought. Denver, Baltimore and New Orleans got one LESS than I thought.

If you're keeping track at home, that's 9 of 32 teams within one game of actual record.

Close one: Cincinnati- Picking them to go 6-10 was "edgy" at the time. Should have given them even less credit. Finished 4-12.

UNDERESTIMATED: St. Louis- Sam Bradford made me a believer, produced a playoff shot and the Rams made drastic improvements. 7-9 was way better than I thought (2-14). Kansas City- Sold them short five wins. Chicago- The team that proved me wrong time and time again. Thought they would stumble around in the middle of the pack, but that only came three times. I figured for five or six times. Improved my record by four games. Tampa Bay- The biggest underestimation. I planned for another tough year no such thing. Wish they could've made the playoffs. The seven game discrepancy from my preseason picks was the largest difference. Philadelphia- My mistake was thinking Kevin Kolb would be the starter. Should have known you can't keep Mike Vick on the sidelines for long. Oakland- I hoped for six wins and they easily surpassed that by winning all six division games. Getting to eight wins is big for the Raiders and Cable Guy. New England- Playoff team, yes. Complete domination and 14-2, no. Nothing Belichick and Brady are able to accomplish surprises me.

COMPLETE OVER-ESTIMATION: Minnesota- Just a terrible season. Favre had absolutely nothing in the tank and didn't want to be there. Add a few sex scandals, Randy Moss berating a caterer, Chili being shown the door mid-season and the Metrodome collapsing, this is a season to forget. Dallas- I knew Bum's Son had no control but even I was surprised by a 1-7 start with a roster full of Pro Bowlers. San Francisco- Kudos, Singletary. You were able to fool me into thinking you could actually win a few games. The locker room turned on him fast and I should've seen it coming. San Diego- Norval and Phil Rivers lost too many winnable games while management played chicken with two of its best players. Certainly a disappointment. Tennessee- The demise can be attributed to the Fisher/Young relationship, which could have potentially been spotted. Carolina- I wanted to think they could at least compete. Wrong, not this year.

If you want to see all the predictions, they can be found in the September archives. It's an eye-opener looking back, but hopefully next year's will be better.

Who To Vote For?

The 2011 Hall of Fame voting ended when the ball dropped at midnight. With the new players added to this year's ballot, another debate begins about who should be allowed in the halls of Cooperstown. If I have a vote, Rafael Palmeiro is on my ballot.

3020 hits, 569 HR, 1855 RBI

The "Steroid-Era" now lets voters play judge and jury when it comes to some of the greatest baseball players' legacy. Unfortunately, some of the best players won't get in based on a culture Major League baseball provided, and pretty much encouraged.

Mark McGwire, Juan Gonzalez, Jeff Bagwell are all on the ballot and none of them are getting the votes any time soon. Those three, one admitted user, one caught with syringes and one suspected user, don't have the same on-field credentials as Palmeiro, however.

The case against Palmeiro is his failed drug test in 2005 five months after telling Congress, "Let me start by saying this: I have never used steroids. Period." Based on that alone many will feel he doesn't belong in the Hall of Fame. He played the majority of his career in Texas and Baltimore, two organizations that produced many "steroid users," according to reports, admissions and tests. The failed test, which he still defends as a "tainted B12 shot," was in 2005. Does that mean he used steroids his entire career? Perhaps, but there's not proof of that.

The case for his induction, based on what he did on the field, is even stronger. The numbers speak for themselves. One of only four players (Hank Aaron, Willie Mays, Eddie Murray) in history with 500 home runs and 3000 hits. He's tied for sixth all-time in extra base hits (1192). His 1855 RBI is 15th all-time, his 569 home runs is 12th. A .288 career hitter with more walks than strikeouts over 20 seasons and 2831 games. The numbers say first-ballot Hall of Famer.

I'd vote for him. Period.

Are those numbers "inflated" by steroid use? Probably. But the failed test came in his last year not the heart of his career. It didn't come in the 90s because no one was tested at that time. My point on all "steroid users" is this: The league didn't care prior to 2004. Its head was buried in the sand on steroid use. Why are they trying to punish people 10-15 years after the fact? And the only ones getting punished and ostracized are the BEST players. The players who carried the league for 10-20 years during some tough times. Bonds, Clemens, McGwire, Palmeiro.

It's MLB grasping at straws and trying to cover its own backside. The writers and voters feel "cheated" and "lied to," like they cared when home runs were flying out of the park and people were actually interested in the league. These voters feel like if they don't vote for them they're doing people a favor. I'm tired of people talking about "integrity" and "character." This isn't the Morality Baseball League. For my vote, if you were a Hall of Fame player on the field with Hall of Fame numbers, you go into the Hall of Fame. Period.

Investigation to Nowhere

It took a four month investigation to find out what we already knew: nothing. The NFL finally waved the white flag, in the last week of the season, and declared they couldn't prove Brett Favre texted pictures of "his junk" to Jenn Sterger. In order to prove they were trying to find something, they fined Favre $50 grand for "not cooperating with the investigation."

This whole story stinks and it has ever since Deadspin, the hacks they are, decided they would essentially help Sterger exhort Favre over pictures that couldn't be linked to him. I don't mind the voice mails that were released. Each person can decide if that was Favre on the phone. But to release pictures of someone's dick and claim they're Favre's is stupid, salacious and disgusting. It's also bad reporting and journalism. And that's what Deadspin does.

Sterger was after money, that much is clear. When she couldn't get any from Favre, or not enough, she sold these pictures to Deadspin, who bought them hook, line and sinker. The seedy situation was talked about all season long and it provided an opportunity to bury Favre off the field.

Deadspin simply wanted to make a fool of Favre and destroy what was left of a shattered reputation. They pretty much succeeded because of the "judge first, find out facts maybe later, maybe never" attitude prevalent in today's society. I'm not here to defend Favre; I want him to go away as much as the next guy. But I also had to sit through months of "coverage" on this "story" only to have the NFL say they couldn't prove or find anything wrong.

The investigation dragged on much longer than necessary to find nothing. The $50,000 fine seems to be an effort to blame Favre for something, anything. Two months ago, Goodell said Favre was cooperating. Now he says Favre wasn't "candid enough in his responses." Does that mean he was fined for not admitting it? It was a he-said-she-said situation from the beginning. Goodell handled this about as poorly as Deadspin.

Hopefully this story, which allegedly took place two years ago, will go away forever. It's wasted too much of our time already. Unfortunately, I'm sure Deadspin will have a similar and less credible story soon.

Don't Bet On It

The NFL is great at making you think you know something only to be proven 100% wrong hours later. Picking games makes you question your sanity at times. You try and spot trends and break down the matchups but sometimes it just doesn't make sense.

"You never know," Bill Belichick said after beating Pittsburgh on the road last month, a game few thought New England would win at the time. "If you know what's going to happen in this league you can make a lot of money."

It's an old line but it's never been more accurate. Vegas must be cleaning up this year. The Bears and Chiefs are division champs? That's a situation I didn't believe until I saw it, and I still scratch my head. The Vikings really didn't beat the Eagles last night, did they? It's been a crazy year, to say the least.

Let's just talk about picking winners because I don't have the disposable income to put money down on a line, and don't want to throw it down the drain. If you bet on the favorite (based on the Vegas line) last week, you would have lost seven games. I would say that's a little above average for each week. In Week 15 there were five "upsets."

While it may be futile to try and put a finger on one particular aspect of a team on whether they win or lose, I've done just that: Look at the coach. Sure, the players win the game but there are too many players to take into consideration. The quarterback is a major factor, as well as injuries and home or away. But when I'm desperate for a winner, I look at who is leading that team and how have the been going lately.

If I was smart, I could have cashed in big time at the start of the year on the Cowboys and Vikings. That was the coach. How about the 49ers? Don't you wish you would have know Singletary had absolutely no clue what he was doing at the beginning of the year? Coaching has certainly played significant roles in the Bears (Martz) and Chiefs (coordinators, plus Haley getting players to buy in) success. And in the demise of the Cowboys, Vikings and Broncos.

Of all the qualities a successful NFL head coach must have, none is more important than the ability to MOTIVATE. That's number 1. The second and nearly as important is scheme. It's based on communication and knowledge. Can you get these guys to play with their hair on fire within a scheme that will outsmart your opponent?

Andy Reid couldn't last night. There's not one thing that pointed to the Vikings winning that game. Philadelphia was hot, Vikings were starting a rookie and had nothing to play for, on the road. It must have been the messed up schedule. I blame Reid (and Vick, of course) for not having them focused on beating a lowly Minnesota team. Teams have feasted on that defense. Philly leads the league in offense. It just doesn't make sense.

I'll go back to Singletary. He's a "motivator" and that's it. As far as I can tell he has no ability to scheme, judge talent or make decisions. When that's the case, you must have coordinators surrounding you with the knowledge the head coach lacks. That wasn't the case in San Fran this year. Then, when things start to go south, you can't continue to berate your players publicly and privately, while not being able to make a decision on who to play at quarterback. Players will tire of your "motivating" style and begin to shut down. That's what happened in Dallas, Minnesota, and Denver. The team tires of the head coach's crap and whether it's sub-consciously or not, the won't play hard or well.

Tony Sparano is another great "motivating" head coach. He is fiery and seems to communicate well with players and media (another thing Singletary lacked.) But his teams are impossible to read. I've struggled the most trying to figure out the Dolphins this year. I'm 5-10 picking Miami games. Of course you could say, "Well look at the quarterback situation." Sparano needs to work the run game and defense, to compensate for a quarterback who should be further along. He also shouldn't have Chad Pennington as a back-up, a guy who is so fragile at this point he was injured falling down after two snaps. The Dolphins are 1-7 at home this season, for goodness sake. That's a head coaching problem but Sparano still isn't in the same category as Singletary.

Another coach to look at is Tom Coughlin. He's a guy who tends to rub players the wrong way at times. After the Eagles-game debacle, the team clearly wasn't up to the task in Green Bay Sunday. They were steam-rolled and Eli Manning looked awful. The defense was just as bad.

The NFL is so hard to read it's almost better if you don't use any logic. Norval Turner is another shining example of how to lose games that should easily be won. Especially at the start of the year. It's just doesn't make any sense some times. And that's what's great about the NFL. There's no rhyme or reason for some games, and like they say, "that's why you play the games." Because "you never know."

My 2010 record picking games: 147-93
2009 record: 171-85
2008 record: 170-86

Just goes to show the more I think I know, the less I actually do. I can't wait to try and pick playoff games.

NFC Power Rankings

Figuring out the NFC hasn't been easy this year. There are some legit contenders, some decent teams that have no real shot, teams that have disappointed and surprised, and some straight-up dumpster fires. Here's a look at Week 13 NFC Power Rankings.

CONTENDERS


1) Atlanta (10-2) - Matt Ryan is earning the "Matty Ice" nickname time and time again. The balanced attack and three-headed offensive monster in Ryan, Roddy White and Michael Turner is a force to be reckoned with. The aren't winning with flash but winning nonetheless. Best chance to represent the NFC in Super Bowl today.

2) Philadelphia (8-4) - Mike Vick is in the MVP discussion and is leading one of the top offenses in the league (1st in yards, 2nd in scoring). The defense isn't quite where it's been in the past when Jim Johnson was running things but can still get pressure. They're leading the league in interceptions (20).

3) Green Bay (8-4) -  The offense and Aaron Rodgers get much of the credit, but the defense is pulling major weight. Dom Capers, Clay Mathews and Charles Woodson have the Pack leading the league in scoring (15.3 points per game), tied for third in sacks and fifth in interceptions. The trendy Super Bowl pick at the start of the year, the Pack are still in good position to get there.

4) New Orleans (9-3) - No Super Bowl hangover here. Sure, they've had some scraps along the way (still wondering how they lost to Arizona) and have been in a dogfight nearly every week but they are coming out on top. The offense is always ready to strike and the defense is still very opportunistic.

GOOD BUT NOT LEGIT 


5) New York Giants (8-4) - You never know what Coughlin is going to bring to the table each week. Started slow, picked up aggressively, now back in the middle. Eli and the defense have been inconsistent at times. Most likely a playoff team but not a noise-maker.

6) Chicago (9-3) - The Bears continue to surprise me but as I've pointed out earlier, they haven't played the toughest schedule. They still won the games and beating Philadelphia gave them more credibility. The tough part of the schedule remains: New England, at Vikings, Jets and Packers to close out the year. Solid team who should make the playoffs but not a legit contender.

7) Tampa Bay  (7-5) - Quietly, and shockingly, the Bucs have emerged as a good NFL team. QB Josh Freeman and head coach Raheem Morris are making names for themselves this season. The Bucs are beating the teams they should and playing the better teams tough and to the wire. Things are looking up in Tampa Bay.

THE UNUSUAL SUSPECTS
This group could all interchange. Two are complete disappointments and two are complete shockers.


8) St. Louis (6-6) - One of the biggest, if not the biggest, surprise of the year. Rookie Sam Bradford is winning more and more people every week and the defense is keeping them in most games. Leading the division with a chance to claim the division is one thing I never thought I'd see after Week 13 this year.

9) Dallas (4-8) - Playing much better under Jason Garrett beating the Giants, Colts and almost pulling out a game vs. New Orleans. The Cowboys are actually trying now and Jon Kitna has settled into his role. The Dez Bryant injury will hurt even though Kitna, it seemed, purposely wouldn't throw him the ball in the New Orleans game.

10) Minnesota (5-7) - The dark, smelly cloud of incompetence left with Chilly. Unfortunately the haze of Favre, his streak and continued poor play haunts the Vikings as the desperately await the end of the season. Competitiveness is improved with Leslie Frazier but nothing to get to excited about.

11) Seattle (6-6) - They could actually win the division. This team looks great one week, then god awful the next. You used to be able to count on them winning at home but even that's in question this year. Kudos to them if they can pull out the NFC West and host another playoff game.

AT LEAST THEY'RE COMPETING

12) Detroit (2-10) - Competing hard and nasty every week. If the NFL wasn't out to get them they would have beat the Bears twice and got some other ones along the way. They're in every game (only a half vs New England) and if they weren't using 2nd- and 3rd-string QBs all year they might have pulled out a couple more wins. I like this team and its style of play. Don't like Stafford's durability and that could screw them royally in the future.

IS THE SEASON OVER YET?

13) San Fransisco (4-8) - Total dud this year. Singletary is on his way out the door, or at least he should be. They change quarterbacks more than the Raiders and lost Frank Gore two weeks ago. A couple questions were answered this year: Singletary and Alex Smith aren't the guys for the job.

14) Washington (5-7) - They've completely quit. Shanahan destroyed this team from the start with the handling of Haynesworth, not that Big Al doesn't deserve some blame. I put most of it on Shanahan and his under-qualified son. Not only did they try to make a point with the best defensive player but also with the new QB, Donovan. It's been ugly since the get-go. They've gotten some wins but have been embarrassed in all seven losses. Get over yourself, Shanahan. Terrell Davis and John Elway got you those rings. Back off the smugness, please.

15) Carolina (1-11) - A season to forget in Charlotte. You can point to numerous things but they just haven't got it done. John Fox will most likely be relieved of his duties but he'll catch on with someone else shortly.

16) Arizona (3-9) - Super Bowl two years ago. Beat the Packers in the playoffs last year. So much has changed for the Cards in the last year they are now the worst team in the conference and league. What was it? Players leaving/retiring, lack of a stable QB, a defense that doesn't know how to make a play or tackle, and many more things. It's so bad Ken Whisenhunt is jealous of Wade Phillips. Just wave the white flag and cash it in. It's over for 2010, Arizona. "Maybe next year."

Jeter Needs To Check Himself

Derek Jeter thinks the Yankees will do anything to keep him. The Yankees have no such idea. The team synonymous with over-paying is taking a backseat approach to negotiations with one of their all-time greats.

Jeter and his agent are believed to want somewhere in the neighborhood of $20+ million over four or more years. That's about $80-100 million for a 36-year old shortshop coming off his least productive season in 15 years. The Yankees also just got done paying him $189 million over the last decade, which included one World Series ring.

Normally, the Yankees make ridiculous signings that make no sense and are completely over-priced. Like Mark Teixeira's 8-year, $180 million contract a couple years ago. Paying Alex Rodriguez $33 million to play third base is also laughable, but that's what the Yankees do. Apparently those days are over.

Yankees brass, Hal Steinbrenner and Brian Cashman, have drawn a line in the sand. They've made it clear they want Derek Jeter to remain a Yankee but have made their offer, 3 years and $45 million. That seems fair. Can you put a price on what Jeter has meant to the Yankees? Clearly you can and they've paid it throughout his career. This new contract would put him over $230 million for what he's done for the Yankees.

Sources say the Yankees told Jeter to "drink the reality potion." He needs to. He's a Hall of Famer, a Yankee legend and brought back the franchise to dominance in the mid-to-late 90s with clutch play. But he's also near the end of the line. He's got a few more decent years in him, no doubt. But not $20 million a year's worth.

Jeter needs the Yankees more than the Yankees need Jeter. They already got everything from him - four rings, millions of fans and a Hall of Fame career. Now they're throwing him a $45 million bone, allowing him to add to career totals while remaining a Yankee for life. In three years, it will be time to exit gracefully with class, just like he handled his entire career.

It's not Jeter's fault Teixeira and ARod are making more than him at this point but there's nothing he can do about it now. They don't have the stature, resume or legacy Jeter does but they were in better negotiating position when the contracts were signed. The contract of Jeter's career was inked in 2001, which was second only to ARod's ridiculous Rangers' contract at the time.

The Yankees and Jeter will work something out. Nobody wants to see him in Arizona or on some other irrelevant team. They're giving him the opportunity to test the free agent market. Teams will be interested but will it be worth leaving the Yankees for a few extra million? That's assuming there are teams offering more than $45 million for three years.

The Yankees may bump it up a few million over the course of the three years during the negotiation process. Jeter and his agent are playing hard ball right now. For the sake of the Yankees, Jeter and major league baseball fans, Jeter needs to accept the offer and retire a Yankee.