Investigation to Nowhere

It took a four month investigation to find out what we already knew: nothing. The NFL finally waved the white flag, in the last week of the season, and declared they couldn't prove Brett Favre texted pictures of "his junk" to Jenn Sterger. In order to prove they were trying to find something, they fined Favre $50 grand for "not cooperating with the investigation."

This whole story stinks and it has ever since Deadspin, the hacks they are, decided they would essentially help Sterger exhort Favre over pictures that couldn't be linked to him. I don't mind the voice mails that were released. Each person can decide if that was Favre on the phone. But to release pictures of someone's dick and claim they're Favre's is stupid, salacious and disgusting. It's also bad reporting and journalism. And that's what Deadspin does.

Sterger was after money, that much is clear. When she couldn't get any from Favre, or not enough, she sold these pictures to Deadspin, who bought them hook, line and sinker. The seedy situation was talked about all season long and it provided an opportunity to bury Favre off the field.

Deadspin simply wanted to make a fool of Favre and destroy what was left of a shattered reputation. They pretty much succeeded because of the "judge first, find out facts maybe later, maybe never" attitude prevalent in today's society. I'm not here to defend Favre; I want him to go away as much as the next guy. But I also had to sit through months of "coverage" on this "story" only to have the NFL say they couldn't prove or find anything wrong.

The investigation dragged on much longer than necessary to find nothing. The $50,000 fine seems to be an effort to blame Favre for something, anything. Two months ago, Goodell said Favre was cooperating. Now he says Favre wasn't "candid enough in his responses." Does that mean he was fined for not admitting it? It was a he-said-she-said situation from the beginning. Goodell handled this about as poorly as Deadspin.

Hopefully this story, which allegedly took place two years ago, will go away forever. It's wasted too much of our time already. Unfortunately, I'm sure Deadspin will have a similar and less credible story soon.

Don't Bet On It

The NFL is great at making you think you know something only to be proven 100% wrong hours later. Picking games makes you question your sanity at times. You try and spot trends and break down the matchups but sometimes it just doesn't make sense.

"You never know," Bill Belichick said after beating Pittsburgh on the road last month, a game few thought New England would win at the time. "If you know what's going to happen in this league you can make a lot of money."

It's an old line but it's never been more accurate. Vegas must be cleaning up this year. The Bears and Chiefs are division champs? That's a situation I didn't believe until I saw it, and I still scratch my head. The Vikings really didn't beat the Eagles last night, did they? It's been a crazy year, to say the least.

Let's just talk about picking winners because I don't have the disposable income to put money down on a line, and don't want to throw it down the drain. If you bet on the favorite (based on the Vegas line) last week, you would have lost seven games. I would say that's a little above average for each week. In Week 15 there were five "upsets."

While it may be futile to try and put a finger on one particular aspect of a team on whether they win or lose, I've done just that: Look at the coach. Sure, the players win the game but there are too many players to take into consideration. The quarterback is a major factor, as well as injuries and home or away. But when I'm desperate for a winner, I look at who is leading that team and how have the been going lately.

If I was smart, I could have cashed in big time at the start of the year on the Cowboys and Vikings. That was the coach. How about the 49ers? Don't you wish you would have know Singletary had absolutely no clue what he was doing at the beginning of the year? Coaching has certainly played significant roles in the Bears (Martz) and Chiefs (coordinators, plus Haley getting players to buy in) success. And in the demise of the Cowboys, Vikings and Broncos.

Of all the qualities a successful NFL head coach must have, none is more important than the ability to MOTIVATE. That's number 1. The second and nearly as important is scheme. It's based on communication and knowledge. Can you get these guys to play with their hair on fire within a scheme that will outsmart your opponent?

Andy Reid couldn't last night. There's not one thing that pointed to the Vikings winning that game. Philadelphia was hot, Vikings were starting a rookie and had nothing to play for, on the road. It must have been the messed up schedule. I blame Reid (and Vick, of course) for not having them focused on beating a lowly Minnesota team. Teams have feasted on that defense. Philly leads the league in offense. It just doesn't make sense.

I'll go back to Singletary. He's a "motivator" and that's it. As far as I can tell he has no ability to scheme, judge talent or make decisions. When that's the case, you must have coordinators surrounding you with the knowledge the head coach lacks. That wasn't the case in San Fran this year. Then, when things start to go south, you can't continue to berate your players publicly and privately, while not being able to make a decision on who to play at quarterback. Players will tire of your "motivating" style and begin to shut down. That's what happened in Dallas, Minnesota, and Denver. The team tires of the head coach's crap and whether it's sub-consciously or not, the won't play hard or well.

Tony Sparano is another great "motivating" head coach. He is fiery and seems to communicate well with players and media (another thing Singletary lacked.) But his teams are impossible to read. I've struggled the most trying to figure out the Dolphins this year. I'm 5-10 picking Miami games. Of course you could say, "Well look at the quarterback situation." Sparano needs to work the run game and defense, to compensate for a quarterback who should be further along. He also shouldn't have Chad Pennington as a back-up, a guy who is so fragile at this point he was injured falling down after two snaps. The Dolphins are 1-7 at home this season, for goodness sake. That's a head coaching problem but Sparano still isn't in the same category as Singletary.

Another coach to look at is Tom Coughlin. He's a guy who tends to rub players the wrong way at times. After the Eagles-game debacle, the team clearly wasn't up to the task in Green Bay Sunday. They were steam-rolled and Eli Manning looked awful. The defense was just as bad.

The NFL is so hard to read it's almost better if you don't use any logic. Norval Turner is another shining example of how to lose games that should easily be won. Especially at the start of the year. It's just doesn't make any sense some times. And that's what's great about the NFL. There's no rhyme or reason for some games, and like they say, "that's why you play the games." Because "you never know."

My 2010 record picking games: 147-93
2009 record: 171-85
2008 record: 170-86

Just goes to show the more I think I know, the less I actually do. I can't wait to try and pick playoff games.

NFC Power Rankings

Figuring out the NFC hasn't been easy this year. There are some legit contenders, some decent teams that have no real shot, teams that have disappointed and surprised, and some straight-up dumpster fires. Here's a look at Week 13 NFC Power Rankings.

CONTENDERS


1) Atlanta (10-2) - Matt Ryan is earning the "Matty Ice" nickname time and time again. The balanced attack and three-headed offensive monster in Ryan, Roddy White and Michael Turner is a force to be reckoned with. The aren't winning with flash but winning nonetheless. Best chance to represent the NFC in Super Bowl today.

2) Philadelphia (8-4) - Mike Vick is in the MVP discussion and is leading one of the top offenses in the league (1st in yards, 2nd in scoring). The defense isn't quite where it's been in the past when Jim Johnson was running things but can still get pressure. They're leading the league in interceptions (20).

3) Green Bay (8-4) -  The offense and Aaron Rodgers get much of the credit, but the defense is pulling major weight. Dom Capers, Clay Mathews and Charles Woodson have the Pack leading the league in scoring (15.3 points per game), tied for third in sacks and fifth in interceptions. The trendy Super Bowl pick at the start of the year, the Pack are still in good position to get there.

4) New Orleans (9-3) - No Super Bowl hangover here. Sure, they've had some scraps along the way (still wondering how they lost to Arizona) and have been in a dogfight nearly every week but they are coming out on top. The offense is always ready to strike and the defense is still very opportunistic.

GOOD BUT NOT LEGIT 


5) New York Giants (8-4) - You never know what Coughlin is going to bring to the table each week. Started slow, picked up aggressively, now back in the middle. Eli and the defense have been inconsistent at times. Most likely a playoff team but not a noise-maker.

6) Chicago (9-3) - The Bears continue to surprise me but as I've pointed out earlier, they haven't played the toughest schedule. They still won the games and beating Philadelphia gave them more credibility. The tough part of the schedule remains: New England, at Vikings, Jets and Packers to close out the year. Solid team who should make the playoffs but not a legit contender.

7) Tampa Bay  (7-5) - Quietly, and shockingly, the Bucs have emerged as a good NFL team. QB Josh Freeman and head coach Raheem Morris are making names for themselves this season. The Bucs are beating the teams they should and playing the better teams tough and to the wire. Things are looking up in Tampa Bay.

THE UNUSUAL SUSPECTS
This group could all interchange. Two are complete disappointments and two are complete shockers.


8) St. Louis (6-6) - One of the biggest, if not the biggest, surprise of the year. Rookie Sam Bradford is winning more and more people every week and the defense is keeping them in most games. Leading the division with a chance to claim the division is one thing I never thought I'd see after Week 13 this year.

9) Dallas (4-8) - Playing much better under Jason Garrett beating the Giants, Colts and almost pulling out a game vs. New Orleans. The Cowboys are actually trying now and Jon Kitna has settled into his role. The Dez Bryant injury will hurt even though Kitna, it seemed, purposely wouldn't throw him the ball in the New Orleans game.

10) Minnesota (5-7) - The dark, smelly cloud of incompetence left with Chilly. Unfortunately the haze of Favre, his streak and continued poor play haunts the Vikings as the desperately await the end of the season. Competitiveness is improved with Leslie Frazier but nothing to get to excited about.

11) Seattle (6-6) - They could actually win the division. This team looks great one week, then god awful the next. You used to be able to count on them winning at home but even that's in question this year. Kudos to them if they can pull out the NFC West and host another playoff game.

AT LEAST THEY'RE COMPETING

12) Detroit (2-10) - Competing hard and nasty every week. If the NFL wasn't out to get them they would have beat the Bears twice and got some other ones along the way. They're in every game (only a half vs New England) and if they weren't using 2nd- and 3rd-string QBs all year they might have pulled out a couple more wins. I like this team and its style of play. Don't like Stafford's durability and that could screw them royally in the future.

IS THE SEASON OVER YET?

13) San Fransisco (4-8) - Total dud this year. Singletary is on his way out the door, or at least he should be. They change quarterbacks more than the Raiders and lost Frank Gore two weeks ago. A couple questions were answered this year: Singletary and Alex Smith aren't the guys for the job.

14) Washington (5-7) - They've completely quit. Shanahan destroyed this team from the start with the handling of Haynesworth, not that Big Al doesn't deserve some blame. I put most of it on Shanahan and his under-qualified son. Not only did they try to make a point with the best defensive player but also with the new QB, Donovan. It's been ugly since the get-go. They've gotten some wins but have been embarrassed in all seven losses. Get over yourself, Shanahan. Terrell Davis and John Elway got you those rings. Back off the smugness, please.

15) Carolina (1-11) - A season to forget in Charlotte. You can point to numerous things but they just haven't got it done. John Fox will most likely be relieved of his duties but he'll catch on with someone else shortly.

16) Arizona (3-9) - Super Bowl two years ago. Beat the Packers in the playoffs last year. So much has changed for the Cards in the last year they are now the worst team in the conference and league. What was it? Players leaving/retiring, lack of a stable QB, a defense that doesn't know how to make a play or tackle, and many more things. It's so bad Ken Whisenhunt is jealous of Wade Phillips. Just wave the white flag and cash it in. It's over for 2010, Arizona. "Maybe next year."

Jeter Needs To Check Himself

Derek Jeter thinks the Yankees will do anything to keep him. The Yankees have no such idea. The team synonymous with over-paying is taking a backseat approach to negotiations with one of their all-time greats.

Jeter and his agent are believed to want somewhere in the neighborhood of $20+ million over four or more years. That's about $80-100 million for a 36-year old shortshop coming off his least productive season in 15 years. The Yankees also just got done paying him $189 million over the last decade, which included one World Series ring.

Normally, the Yankees make ridiculous signings that make no sense and are completely over-priced. Like Mark Teixeira's 8-year, $180 million contract a couple years ago. Paying Alex Rodriguez $33 million to play third base is also laughable, but that's what the Yankees do. Apparently those days are over.

Yankees brass, Hal Steinbrenner and Brian Cashman, have drawn a line in the sand. They've made it clear they want Derek Jeter to remain a Yankee but have made their offer, 3 years and $45 million. That seems fair. Can you put a price on what Jeter has meant to the Yankees? Clearly you can and they've paid it throughout his career. This new contract would put him over $230 million for what he's done for the Yankees.

Sources say the Yankees told Jeter to "drink the reality potion." He needs to. He's a Hall of Famer, a Yankee legend and brought back the franchise to dominance in the mid-to-late 90s with clutch play. But he's also near the end of the line. He's got a few more decent years in him, no doubt. But not $20 million a year's worth.

Jeter needs the Yankees more than the Yankees need Jeter. They already got everything from him - four rings, millions of fans and a Hall of Fame career. Now they're throwing him a $45 million bone, allowing him to add to career totals while remaining a Yankee for life. In three years, it will be time to exit gracefully with class, just like he handled his entire career.

It's not Jeter's fault Teixeira and ARod are making more than him at this point but there's nothing he can do about it now. They don't have the stature, resume or legacy Jeter does but they were in better negotiating position when the contracts were signed. The contract of Jeter's career was inked in 2001, which was second only to ARod's ridiculous Rangers' contract at the time.

The Yankees and Jeter will work something out. Nobody wants to see him in Arizona or on some other irrelevant team. They're giving him the opportunity to test the free agent market. Teams will be interested but will it be worth leaving the Yankees for a few extra million? That's assuming there are teams offering more than $45 million for three years.

The Yankees may bump it up a few million over the course of the three years during the negotiation process. Jeter and his agent are playing hard ball right now. For the sake of the Yankees, Jeter and major league baseball fans, Jeter needs to accept the offer and retire a Yankee.

Mowdown in Miami

The Bears defense ran over a completely inept Tyler Thigpen-led offense to improve to a division-leading 7-3. The Dolphins didn't get past the Bears 35-yard line. They couldn't even get into position to bring out the field goal unit. The Dolphins were shutout at home for the first time since 2001. That's impressive considering the gang of misfits the Dolphins have been running out there at quarterback in the last 10 years.

Not many teams are going to lose to Miami last night. The team had no confidence in Thigpen, and it looked like he had no confidence in himself. The Bears defense deserves some credit but Thigpen's play was not competitive. Brandon Marshall didn't do him any favors by dropping two balls before tweaking his hamstring and leaving the game. Jake Long played with his shoulder in a harness. They were using a 3rd-string guard at center. On top of that, Sparano abandoned the run game from the git-go, placing even more pressure on Thigpen. Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams combined for 11 yards on only 6 carries. They were 0-5 on third down conversions.

The Bears are 7-3 and lead the division. How seriously should I take that record? It seems legitimate. Last night's shutout ensured the Bears will be in first place in the NFC North for at least one more week.

At face value, the Bears are a good team with with one of the best defenses in the league. If you look into each Bears game, you'll see a cause for concern. Look at the teams they've beat.

Carolina 1-8
Buffalo 1-8
Dallas 2-7
Detroit 2-7
Minnesota 3-6
Miami 5-5
Green Bay 6-3           Total: 20-45

Side note: Miami and Green Bay were decimated by injuries at the time.

You can only beat who's on your schedule. For that I will give the Bears credit. They are going out and getting it done 70 percent of the time and that's great in the NFL. The consistency is improving but let's wait a few more weeks before we crown them.

Bears remaining schedule: vs Philadelphia, @ Detroit, vs New England, @ Minnesota (Mon), vs NY Jets, @ Green Bay. Combined record: 31-23

Another Thing:
Let's compare the Bears to who I feel are the top teams in the NFC - Atlanta and Philadelphia.

Atlanta is 7-2. The record of opponent in wins is 29-34. Three wins over 6-3 teams.
Philadelphia 6-3: Record of those 6 wins: 27-27. And they beat Atlanta.

The Giants are suspect as well, like Chicago: They've only beat two teams over .500, and one is Seattle.

Supercool Beas

A new start in Minnesota

No sooner than I speak on Michael Beasley he blows up for a career-high 42 points and leads the T'Wolves to a win over the Kings. "Supercool Beas," the moniker tatted on his back, got loose for a memorable breakout game that suggests he does have what it takes to live up to his No. 2 overall pick status.

Beasley shot 17-31 from the floor, collected nine rebounds and shined hope on what looks like another dismal Timberwolves season. His previous career-high was 30 points.

Drafted second by Miami at 19, Beasley made some youthful mistakes and suffered some consequences. A couple dust-ups with marijuana, a couple ill-fated Twitter posts and a reported trip to rehab. A lot can happen to a 19-year old with millions of dollars on South Beach.

All of those things are now in the past, including the Miami lifestyle and spotlight that accompanies the Heat everywhere they go. In the Land of 10,000 Lakes Beasley can truly begin his career. The abundance of playing time available in Minnesota will help his development playing the 3 and 4 positions.

"He's playing small forward but is probably more comfortable playing power forward," head coach Kurt Rambis said. "He's got a great human spirit about him. He has an enthusiasm for the game, a passion for life."

Beasley will continue to improve and grow as a person and player. Let's not chalk him up as a bust just yet. And maybe the T'Wolves won't finish with the worst record of all-time.

The Best and Worst

When Minnesota appears on the Lakers schedule nobody gets excited. Fans and television viewers don't take notice. What last night's game represented was seeing the opposite ends of the spectrum in the NBA. Best vs. Worst. Title contender vs. 10-win contender. Defending champs vs. some guys and Rambis. Without League Pass or tickets you'll never see this game. It provides a unique dynamic and illustrates how different two teams can be in the this league.

Not much laughing now for Rambis. 

Last night proved to be no different. Minnesota shocked most people by keeping it close until the end and only losing 99-94. But nobody in the building or at home watching ever felt like the T-Wolves ever had a chance. The Lakers napped through the game and still won without breaking a sweat. They exerted only enough energy to control the game and win.

After two-plus weeks into the season, it's clear the Lakers are once again on a mission. Title or bust. Bumping along with a few new players, who seem to have picked up the offense and mentality seamlessly. Steve Blake and Matt Barnes have both been very productive in limited roles. Barnes at 9.1 ppg and 6.1 reb in just over 20 minutes. Blake is shooting 50 percent in threes (14-28). Compare that to Jordan Farmar, who Blake replaced as back-up point guard. Farmar is shooting 28 percent (7-28) with the Nets so far this year.

The T'Wolves, on the other hand, don't even have enough quality guys to fill out a starting line-up. If Rambis isn't careful, this year's Wolves could let the '72-'73 Sixers off the hook for worst record of all-time (9-73). Darko Milicic starts for them. He's 7'0" and is shooting 28 percent from the field. There's a reason he is known as the worst #2 pick of all time. Speaking of #2 picks, Michael Beasley is also a starter. I'm in Beasley's corner, like parts of his game, but the production hasn't equaled the potential. In another year or two I hope he's put it all together. He's still very young, where as Darko is in his 8th season.

Bottom line: The Lakers are clearly the best team in the league right now. 8-0 is the best start for LA since the 1997-98 season. All the focus and reaction to every Heat game has allowed the Lakers to slide under the radar and dominate with little fuss. Flip side: The Timberwolves are god awful. They're contraction bad. I have no idea how they've got one win already (Bucks.) Good luck, Rambis and team. On the bright side, the season's already a tenth over.

Streak Must Continue



How dare he consider benching Favre

As the Vikings 2010 season continues to circle the toilet, Brett Favre and Brad Childress are entering an epic showdown. Favre, with two fractures in his ankle, wants to give playing "a try" on Sunday against New England and keep his 291 consecutive games played streak alive. Chilly isn't sure he wants to give him that chance.

Despite everything Favre's been through the last few years, the streak has always been the biggest part of his legacy. He's played with every injury under the sun. There's a reason he was hooked on Vicodin years ago. For the last 20 years, if you couldn't believe in anything else, believe in Favre under center on Sunday.

Now Brad Childress, of all people, wants to come in and say "I've gotta do what's best for this team." What's best for the team is having the guy everyone bent over backwards for play quarterback. If Chilly thinks he's going to get back control of the team by making a stand against a banged-up Favre, he's dumber than he looks and sounds. Benching Favre mid-season is a worse move than sending guys to Mississippi to corner him into coming back and lying about it.

Chilly won't bench Favre. He would like to but he knows he can't do it. As long as Favre isn't down with a season/career-ending, surgery-requiring injury, he will be the Vikings quarterback. Chilly is the last guy to make that call with the mockery he's made of his position over the last two years. Favre now runs the team, Childress. He got you a $15 million extension (the dumbest move of the past decade, just ahead of JaMarcuss Russell.) If Favre doesn't want to play, then look to TJack. But that won't happen because the only thing he has left is the streak. Until Favre shuts it down himself you're stuck with him. It's exactly what you wanted, Chilldress.

NFL Needs To Be Careful

There's a lot the NFL needs to be careful of these days. Number one is still avoiding a lockout next year, but this week's topic is avoiding changing how the game we love is played.   The NFL is stepping in with fines, and possible suspensions, on what they deem "dirty" hits. They need to be very careful on how they go about with these fines and how to protect players without ruining the game and product on the field.

I've sat on this dilemma for a minute or two and I'm ready to go helmet-to-helmet on it.

The NFL was wrong to fine James Harrison $75 grand for the hits he put on two Browns receivers. He should quote Col. Nathan Jessep in A Few Good Men, "I did my job and I'll do it again." That's how Harrison plays football, that's how he became Defensive Player of the Year, and he should be concerned with how the league is going to be enforcing these rules. Harrison was simply a scapegoat after last weekend.

If both Browns players, Josh Cribbs and Mohamed Massaquoi, weren't concussed, Harrison doesn't get fined. It's not even an issue. But because they suffered concussions, people were up in arms. I seen harder, bigger hits on kickoffs. I don't want to down play the magnitude of Harrison's hits on Cribbs and Massaquoi, they were BIG, but they happen in nearly every game.

An example of a play that nobody paid any attention because there wasn't a concussion: Eagles-Redskins game. Redskins kicking off to Jorrick Calvin. Phillip Daniels, #93 for the Redskins, a DE, absolutely blows him up with a helmet-to-helmet that was the biggest hit I saw that weekend. I rewound it 4-5 times. But Calvin hopped right up (somehow) and ran off the field. That same hit probably concusses another player. I have scoured the internet looking for it but because it was just a standard 20-yard return it's vanished into thin air, with the hundreds of other hits that may now be fineable, if someone is knocked out of the game. I never saw it on a highlight. (Maybe it was featured on "jack'ed up," I don't know, I don't watch MNF pregame.)

The hits last weekend need to be addressed. When I saw the Dunta Robinson hit on DeSean Jackson, I squirmed. I don't want to see hits like that, especially when both players are down, not moving. But it's part of the NFL, and to a certain extent, unavoidable. NO player should launch with the helmet into the helmet of a defenseless receiver but the line is so fine it's easy to see why people like Harrison are concerned with how they can be effective without getting fined, or suspended.

We all want to see the players protected but the players themselves don't seem to think it's necessary. Obviously the defensive players think it's a bad idea but even Josh Cribbs told Jim Rome, "It's part of the game, which I love dearly. It's what we signed up for." That last sentence seems to be the mantra for ALL NFL players. They know what can happen out there, they signed up to be a part of it, and are paid well to put themselves in harm's way.

Another way to avoid these hits on defenseless receivers like Jackson, Massaquoi and Jordan Shipley a few weeks ago is for QBs not to hang them out to dry. More blame goes to the QB on those hits than anyone wants to say.

Big hits, "dirty hits," egregious hits, whatever you want to call them, are not new to the NFL. The league overreacted after a weekend that featured what they felt were too many. The NFL needs to be very careful on how they go about "protecting their players." Like the NBA with its new technical foul policy, the league may think it's doing people a favor but the product we're watching will be effected and compromised.

The NFL must be clear on how they want to enforce these rules and releasing a video mid-week might not be the best option. I still don't know if Dunta Robinson's hit was illegal or not. Some say yes (league,) others say no (players, analysts.) I'm okay with a fine for that one and Brandon Meriweather's hit on Todd Heap. But what happens when a ref ejects or suspends someone for a questionable hit? A whole new storm will blow into town.

We all want players to be safe, and dirty hits can't be tolerated but the NFL might have let this go too far to do anything about it. Trying to teach everyone how to tackle differently, and less effectively for some, after they've succeed doing it another way is ludicrous. On top of that, each person has a different opinion on what's a dirty hit. Policing egregious hits and helmet-to-helmet contact will be an arduous task, as will maintaining the health of the players and the integrity of the league.

It's Still on Favre

He's Back.

When the Vikings couldn't land Vincent Jackson a couple of weeks ago, the season looked like a loss until at least Sidney Rice got back on the field. And even then it probably was too far gone to be saved.

Brett Favre's lack of confidence in his receivers was all too apparent in the first three games. His attitude screamed "I wish is was back in Mississippi. Damn you, Jared and Hutch for backing me into a corner and agreeing to this."

His chucking the ball straight in the air down field to Bernard Berrian, only to be intercepted numerous times, was equivalent to sending up a flare. A distress signal to management, fans, teammates: This is what happens without a decent receiver on the other end. Something must be done.

Zygi and Chili were listening. They tried hard to land Jackson but nothing short of multiple No. 1 picks was going to satisfy Chargers GM A.J. Smith. So they came up empty-handed, beat the Lions and went on the bye week. Favre had a couple more weeks to get on the same page with his junior varsity receivers and gear up for a brutal stretch of games. Little did the public know Chili, the sly old dog, was targeting the biggest star the Vikings ever had, Randy Moss.

Bringing in Moss, who is looking for a contract extension, indicates the Vikings know it's now or never. 2010 with Favre is the last chance they have for a long while. They needed a big-time receiver and they needed him NOW.

This is the same guy Favre wanted Green Bay to sign in 2007. He's still on top of the game and can deliver on deep routes as well as anyone. There are no more excuses for Favre. If getting Moss doesn't snap him out of his "I wish I weren't here" funk, nothing will. He must start playing better or he will receive the blame. And whatever doesn't go to him goes to Childress.

Luckily Bill Belichick wanted to get something in return for Moss and what he got was a third round pick. The Patriots had no intention of re-signing him after the season and Moss made that clear by saying numerous times "this will probably be my last season with the Patriots."

Fans in Minnesota rejoiced when the referee-soaking, meter maid-swiping, "play-when-I-want-to," "straight cash"-paying receiver returned to them. As well they should. This is the only shot they have and need all the help they can get.

"Favre to Moss!" sounds good and it will be heard a lot if the Vikings are to make a run this year.

Fix Sunday Ticket Now

NFL Sunday Ticket is a wonderful thing but it's a rip off and a monopoly. Way too much for one house. They need to make it cheaper and give it to all other providers. Why does DirectTV get to horde it? I'd like the anti-trust guys who looked into Microsoft to look into this. Let more people enjoy a reasonably priced product. Thirty bucks a month, that's half of what it is now. The whole season for $120 - done.

This has gotta be connected to the potential lockout some way. Too much money going one place. Figure this broadcasting problem out along with the black-out and lack of stadium participation. All this is tied up together with the rest of the billions of dollars that might shut this thing down next year.

Let me say this: I've put my head in the sand on this lockout thing. I don't buy it, don't want to hear about it, don't believe it. Only when it's actually shut down will I buy it. These owners and player representatives are smart, based on the positions they hold, they have to be. So how could they be dumb enough to shut down the most popular league in sports?

BUT THE POINT WAS.... you don't need Sunday Ticket some weeks. Not if you're in the Des Moines/Central Iowa region tomorrow. The four best games are on the locals.

No. 4: Giants at Colts - NBC Sunday night
I'm not into the Manning Bowl hype but would like to see where these teams are at. I'll take the Colts here.

No. 3: Bears at Cowboys - FOX 12:00
If the Cowboys start 0-2 people will be up in arms. The Bears will show their true colors here. I'm going with Bum's son, like everyone else.

No. 2: Dolphins at Vikings - CBS 12:00
Dolphins are an intriguing team. I like watching their personnel and Sparano on the sidelines, yelling. Home opener in Minnesota. The Favre and Chili Show is back in town! Take the Vikings.

No. 1: Patriots at Jets - CBS 3:15
Seems like everyone is taking the Pats here but I'm going Jets. I'm with the home team in a bitter division rivalry. I haven't been convinced the Pats are back to '07 form after one game against the Bengals, who played like dogs in the first half and gave away the game easy and early. Jets run it better, play tough D and squeak out a close one, 16-13.

The best game I don't get: Ravens at Bengals. Division game - means a lot to both teams. Cincinnati can't fall in that 0-2 hole. If so, they'll never get out. The other division game, only 3 this weekend, is Bucs at Panthers. Hard-hitting NFC South action. I'm going Ravens and Panthers in those two.

Other notables:
Texans at Redskins - which team is for real? Either? Redskins to win
Steelers at Titans - Pittsburgh is dinged up and Titans could be rolling this year. Titans win at home.

Vikings Need Jackson

Vincent Jackson is available. If traded by next Wednesday he will only miss four games instead of six. Teams should be on this like Rex Ryan on a bag of peanut M&Ms.



Pick him up!

 San Diego won't make it easy and I doubt they want to move him at all. He would have to sit out a total of five games with the Chargers, and based on his holdout and adamant stance, he doesn't want to play there. So if San Diego does want a first-round and later-round pick for him, the Vikings should do it. Here's why:

1)  His $9 million contract is chump change to the Wilfs. They threw more money at Favre this year for the hell of it. They were paying Sage Rosenfels $4 mil to be inactive on gamedays.

2)  They don't even use their first-round picks. Last year they just gave Detroit Jahvid Best by passing on their late first-round pick. Best scored two touchdowns in his first game. If they got Jackson, it would be another high-twenty pick anyway. If it's the 2012 first-rounder they want, fine. You'll need a receiver who makes the quarterback better, not the other way around, at that point anyway.

3) We don't know the health status of Sidney Rice. Everyone assumes he'll be 100 percent when he comes back. That's a big assumption. Just like thinking he could get through the season without having surgery in the first place, which backfired in training camp. Harvin will most likely miss a few games here and there. His migraines are allegedly "under control" but is on the injury report already with a hip.

4)  Bernard Berrian, Greg Camarillo and Greg Lewis cannot carry your passing game. Berrian can't play, Lewis can't even get on the field with this crew and Camarillo is still learning the offense. They need major help.

5)  With the four game suspension, and a bye in Week 4, there will be plenty of time for Jackson to learn the system and get comfortable with Favre.

6)  The addition of Jackson may bring Favre out of the depressed, my-receivers-suck state he's in. It's like he's about to cry every time he talks about the passing game. Jackson is a top-5 receiver with a good QB. He's better than Rice, who Favre cries about not being there. Imagine Jackson on one side, Rice on the other, Shaincoe hangin' out down the middle and Harvin in the slot. Very tough.

7)  Minnesota must do something to improve on last year. They can't rest on last year's success.

8)  Finally, I'm under the assumption the Vikings are trying to win a Super Bowl NOW. Favre is done after this year, therefore eliminating the Vikings from contention next year (based on their QB status). That means they need to do everything they can this year, which means trading for a premiere receiver. That may mean over paying slightly, but this is the last chance for a while in Minnesota. Two first-rounders maybe too much, but Mark Wilf and Rick Spielman need to find a way to make it happen.

National Over-Reaction League

The most wonderful week of the year has now come and gone. The NFL is back in full swing, and it's a glorious sight. And with that comes the over-reactions to every team's win or loss each week.

Glenn Dorsey played great last night

Let's look at the four "upsets." Kansas City over San Diego, Washington over Dallas, Seattle over San Francisco and Houston over Indianapolis.

All were somewhat unexpected but were they really that surprising? All were divisional games won by the home team. As Brian Billick reminded viewers during another near/shouldabeen upset, Detroit/Chicago, winning a division game on the road is "the hardest thing in sports."

With those wins come the over-reactions by the fans and media. "Dallas won't win a game!" "Look at how great the Chiefs are!" "It's the Texans' year to get over on the Colts!" "Pete Carroll is a genius!"

There are certain truths to all the over-reactions from the games. Dallas did play like garbage. But they probably just need a little more time to knock the rust off. The Colts defense just got ran over to the tune of a NFL record (first player to go over 200 yards and 3 TDs in the opener). But those games meant more to the Redskins and Texans than vice-versa.

Kansas City made some big, splash plays on special teams, had a long run and its defense looked much improved but they passed for just 68 yards. KC converted 1 of 11 third downs. They were outgained 389-197 on offense. San Diego was missing three of its best players in the middle of a downpour. Malcolm Floyd slipped twice at the goal line in the final minute that may have tied the game.

Oh, well. A win is a win. Kudos to the Chiefs for getting it done. They made more plays than the Chargers. But let's not put the Chiefs in the playoffs just yet. Same goes for the Texans and Seahawks. To use an old, over-used cliche "there's a lot of football to be played."

Despite the over-reactions being a bit much and sometimes off-base, it once again shows the power of the NFL. Each game means so much, even game one. The passion and pride generated is why we love this league. A win in Week 1 may not get a team to the Super Bowl but it sure feels like it can.

NFC North Preview

People could argue this is the best division in football. I could be one of those people. This year features two premiere teams, an underachieving, highly-scrutinized team and a team that went 0-16. All areas are covered. At least the Lions appear to be trying now.

GREEN BAY 12-4

Rodgers - MVP?

A lot of signs are pointing to the Pack this year. The Aaron Rodgers discussion is over. There's no real doubt he has what it takes. Playoff wins are a must to put him in the elite group but because he played so well in last year's loss you can determine he's not a Romo, a player who folds up shop come playoff time.

The Green Bay offense will be firing on all cylinders with a healthy line. With any resemblance of a running game and adequate time, Rodgers will hurt you with precision down the field. Taking sacks has been an issue for years with Rodgers. Taking away his primary read allows more time for the pass rush to get there. Well-timed blitzes can work, as it did for Arizona in last year's playoff loss. Speaking of that ...

Giving up 51 points in a playoff game demands attention be paid to the defense in the offseason. Attention was paid. Unfortunately it was the wrong kind and it resulted in top-notch nose tackle Johnny Jolly being arrested and getting suspended the entire season. Last year's top-ten pick B.J. Raji will have to fill the spot. Aaron Kampman is no longer on the end after struggling to find an effective spot in last year's new scheme.

It will be the second year in Dom Capers' 3-4 defense. It has shown the ability to get pressure and force turnovers. The corners are getting older and Al Harris is still recovering from his spleen injury and starts the year on the PUP list.

The defense won't have to do much. Rodgers and company will cruise through the regular season and into the playoffs. It could be an MVP year for Rodgers.

MINNESOTA 10-6

Does he even care this year?

Brett Favre is back but doesn't look the least bit interested in being there. He's spent much of his time this preseason talking about how there's no way he plays as well as he did last year. How everything went right and there's no shot it can happen like that again. He's right but does he need to be so focused on letting everyone know a letdown is coming?

The Sidney Rice loss will hurt slightly but people must remember Favre turned him into a Pro Bowler. He clearly has the tools and ability but without someone putting it on him down the field consistently, he's just another guy. Greg Camarillo will be a nice addition for the receivers. Hopefully Percy Harvin will be on the field each week. On top of the migraines, he's always taking huge hits. He's one of the toughest young players in the league.

Adrian Peterson must prove he belongs in the upper echelon of running backs again. His fumbling has become a major problem and team have shown the ability to shut him down. Defensively, the Vikings will use the same formula they always have - rely on the front four to cause havoc and stop the run. Getting E.J. Henderson back at LB will be big for Minnesota.

The Vikings still have a very solid team, it will just depend on Favre's motivation. The schedule isn't nearly as easy as last year's, especially the beginning. If Favre loses interest, or his problems with Chili continue to fester, it could be a disappointing year in the Twin Cities.

CHICAGO 7-9

A day Bears fans may wish to forget

The Bears have been swimming in mediocrity for the last three years and fans shouldn't expect it to change this year. Despite some impressive moves in the offseason, notably signing Julius Peppers for $91 million, the Bears fate lies in Jay Cutler's hands. And that doesn't inspire confidence.

Cutler threw a league-high 26 interceptions last year. While the receiving corps is average at best, Cutler hasn't shown the signs of being a leader so far in his career. He needs to make the receivers better, not blame them for inexperienced mistakes.

Enter Mike Martz as offensive coordinator. This could be a volatile combination. Cutler has proven to be a difficult personality to deal with and mixing with Martz may cause additional problems. Martz will demand a lot, and Cutler hasn't been able to live up to high expectations in the past.

Teaming Peppers with Tommie Harris on the right side of the defensive line creates a tough combo. The linebackers must pull their weight but team leader Brian Urlacher, who missed all of last season, has already went down in the preseason. His time could be up as a top LB. Rod Marinelli is running the defense this year and will need a lot of big plays and consistency to stay in games.

Lovie Smith will be on the hot seat all year. Chicago is desperate for a winner and continue to have high expectations with its new acquisitions. The Bears will be competitive, just not to the tune its fans would like.

DETROIT 4-12

This needs to be avoided

After making history in 2008, the Lions and Jim Schwartz began the climb out of the deepest hole any franchise had ever been in. Last year was rocky, to be expected with a depleted roster, rookie QB and first-year head coach, but they scraped together two wins. Another productive offseason and draft should get the Lions a few more wins this year.

Matthew Stafford will be expected to be much improved in his second campaign. He will have to cut down on interceptions and stay healthy. Detroit picked up a few pieces in WR Nate Burlson, TE Tony Scheffler and draft pick RB Jahvid Best. All will help the offense and free up Calvin Johnson to make plays.

Schwartz went out and got Kyle Vanden Bosch and drafted Ndamukong Suh to sure up a very weak defensive line. No one gave up more points last year than the Lions (494) and will have to dramatically improve in order to have a chance. Look for another year of growth from Detroit.

AFC North Preview

BALTIMORE 11-5

Rice can do it all

The Ravens have everything in place to legitimately contend for a Super Bowl. Picking up two veteran, savvy receivers in Anquan Boldin and T.J. Houshmandzadeh will help Joe Flacco and the passing game. The Ravens haven't had this type of talent in the receiving corps in quite some time. The defense still has Ray Lewis but will be missing Ed Reed for at least the first six games.

Even with the new receivers, the Ravens will try to pound the ball with Ray Rice, who has emerged as a premiere back in the league. His pass-catching ability rivals any starting running back and his bowling-ball stature and speed make him very difficult to deal with. Flacco must continue his progression up the ranks of NFL QBs by making good decisions and not turning the ball over.

Losing Ed Reed will certainly hurt the Ravens, but how much? You can't replace him but you can try to cover up the loss by increasing the pass rush. Lewis will have the defense playing with its hair on fire regardless but they will need to avoid getting burned over the top.

The Ravens' nose tackle, Haloti Ngata, is one of the best in the game. Absolutely massive, (6'4", 340 lbs) he has the quickness and foot speed to be as disruptive and dominating as anyone at the position.

The Ravens are in the driver's seat in the AFC North and, with a healthy Reed, should be disappointed with anything less than a trip to the conference championship game.

PITTSBURGH 10-6

Polamalu's return is critical for Pittsburgh

Facing challenges and situations they wish didn't exist, the Steelers have a lot to prove this year. Missing the playoffs last year turned out to be the tip of the iceberg. Another embarrassing, reprehensible off-field incident by Ben Roethlisbeger has him suspended for the first four games.  Dennis Dixon will be asked to play caretaker. If the Steelers can stay afloat in Big Ben's absence, they should have enough to make it back to the playoffs.

Big Ben will be driven and motivated to succeed after the general public has turned on him and insulted him every way possible (deservedly so.)  He is still a top-notch quarterback who must earn back the fans' and team's trust and admiration, if only on the field. Cutting Santonio Holmes will hurt, even though he too would miss the first four games. Other receivers must step up.

Troy Polamalu missing 11 games is the major reason for last year's defensive letdown. With him back the defense will improve naturally. They must get back to resembling the defense from two years ago.

The Steelers will have a chip on their shoulder and a desire to prove they're a contender. Getting back to a more balanced attack on offense will be wise and holding on to leads late will be a must.

CINCINNATI 6-10

TO: A questionable move

This team has never performed when dealing with lofty expectations. The pattern has been make the playoffs and get complacent. The Bengals caught teams off guard and played exceptional defense. They went undefeated in the division, a remarkable accomplishment. All that does for them this year, however, is put a bigger target on their back.

The re-birth of Cedric Benson last year was refreshing. He showed people who called him a bust he is capable of playing at a high level. Will his motivation be as strong this year? The offseason moves at wide receiver were puzzling. Signing Antonio Bryant with a bum knee for $8 million and then cutting him during training camp. Signing TO, who no one else wanted.

The defense will have to play as well or better than last year for any type of success. Cincinnati is playing a division-winner's schedule and won't be sneaking up on anyone this year.  I considered bumping them up to seven wins but stuck to my early August prediction.

CLEVELAND 4-12

Still has his work cut out

The Holmgren Era began last season and it resulted in finishing the year 4-0. They've finally moved away from Brady Quinn and brought in Jake Delhomme and drafted Colt McCoy. Delhomme is coming off a horrible 2009 season but his experience will be a nice addition to this young offense.

Eric Mangini may be on his last go-round as a head coach. He still hasn't proven himself as a leader and his departure could be sooner than later. Holmgren was very busy in the offseason with roster moves and it may be a matter of time before he wants to coach his team himself.

The Browns have some scattered talent and proved last year they're capable of putting together a run. Holmgren is moving them in the right direction but needs more time. Overall, they don't have the numbers of quality players yet and will be finishing 4th yet again.

NFC East Preview

The rivalries are what carry this division, as it will be among the most watched and competitive divisions in football this year.

DALLAS 11-5

Once again the Cowboys have the talent to be one of the best teams in the league but it will come down to execution. They have the skill players on offense and defense to be considered the best in the league. However, the offensive line continues to be an issue with its protection and run blocking. With Romo established, three capable running backs and a receiving corps that gained Dez Bryant, the offense will go as far as the line can block.

The defensive line and pass rush will be at the top of the league again and the Cowboys will use it to generate turnovers. Wade Phillips' specialty is defense so expect another strong season from that side of the ball.

The Cowboys looked rusty in preseason, perhaps just biding their time. Either way, the Cowboys have a tough schedule and always get their opponent's best effort. Bum's son's laid-back approach can result in a let-down from time to time but, ultimately, the Cowboys should win the division. However, don't expect a home game in the Super Bowl.

NEW YORK 9-7

The Giants were a tale of two teams last year. Out the gate quickly at 5-0, they stumbled badly in the second half, especially on defense, going 3-8 after getting hit hard with injuries. Tom Coughlin and Eli Manning are anxious to get back to the playoffs but must get better line play on both sides of the ball.

The defense looked awful much of the time last year, allowing the second most points in the league. The Giants spent four draft picks on defense, including DE Jason Pierre-Paul with the 15th pick. The defensive line used to be the strong point of the team and will need to return there if the Giants are to be successful. Picking up S Antrel Rolle in free agency will be a great pick up on the back end.

New York must get back to a more formidable rushing attack to compete within this division. Manning is coming off his best year but needs a ground game to keep defenses honest. He was also sacked a career-high 30 times, so protection must improve.

The Giants will have its work cut out but should be able to improve from last year's disappointment.

WASHINGTON 8-8

Major turnover happened in DC this offseason, and not a moment too soon. The Redskins had become the butt of jokes during last year's forgettable 4-12 campaign. But now they have a veteran coach and veteran QB to lead the way.

Things have been tumultuous for the entire summer thanks to disgruntled employee Albert Haynesworth. His relationship with the new staff started bad and still hasn't improved. Haynesworth doesn't want to play nose tackle in Mike Shanahan's 3-4 defense and it appears to be a stalemate in the battle of wills that has gone on for months. The Redskins are still trying to trade Haynesworth and Shanahan has said he will not start the $100 million man opening weekend.

With McNabb now under center, the offense will dramatically improve. He's being looked at as a savior of sorts, but he must be protected and stay healthy to accomplish anything. The Redskins offensive line was very porous last year and must perform better to allow McNabb to distribute the ball. The running game also fell off with the lack of blocking up front and will need to be re-established this year. No. 4 overall pick OT Trent Williams can hopefully contribute immediately.

With new management and a proven quarterback now leading the 'Skins, dramatic improvement should be seen. Doubling last year's win total is well within range, as well as a run at the division title.

PHILADELPHIA 7-9

The Eagles are in the heart of a youth movement. Andy Reid will turn things over to Kevin Kolb to fill the shoes of McNabb. Kolb is unproven but has potential to do what Aaron Rodgers did in his first year after patiently waiting. Kolb will have the receiving weapons and experienced play-callers, but will have a tough challenge in such a competitive division.

DeSean Jackson has established himself as one of the most electrifying players in the league. Hopefully Kolb can throw the deep ball as well as McNabb because Jackson can fly past defenses. Kolb will need solid offensive line play and RB LeSean McCoy to build on his impressive rookie season carrying the ball.

The defense will be the question mark with a lot of holes to fill. They will blitz and harass the quarterback, as they always have, but may not have the manpower to be as effective as they have been in the past.

The Eagles have potential to compete in the NFC but will take a step back as its young players get accustomed to the NFL.

AFC East Preview

This will be an excellent division to watch all year. Expectations are extremely high in New York, New England is hungry, Miami is a tough team that will challenge for the division and Buffalo is......... playing a couple games in Toronto again this year.

NEW YORK 11-5

Bart Scott will lead another great defense

Last year's run into the AFC Championship game proved the Jets have what it takes. This year will be about consistency on offense. The Jets struggled at times last year, even Rex Ryan proclaimed they were out of the playoffs at one point. That consistency will revolve around QB Mark Sanchez's ability to make good decision.

The defense will carry the team again. Antonio Cromartie will be a good pick-up on the other side of Darrelle Revis, who finally will report to the team after holding out for five weeks. The Jets also signed Jason Taylor but shouldn't expect much from him. Losing Calvin Pace for 4-6 weeks will be a minor bump in the road. Having Kris Jenkins back in the middle will be as helpful as any of their free agency moves.

The offense will rely on its ground game to take away some pressure on Sanchez. Letting Thomas Jones go opens the door for Shonn Greene to be the full-time back. Jones was an established hard runner with multiple 1000 yard seasons and it will be interesting to see if Greene can fill his shoes. LT is starting his first season in a new locker room and his role will be limited but important. Relieving pressure on third downs and the goal line will be where LT can help.

Picking up Santonio Holmes, despite his four-game suspension, is a bold move that will pay-off for the Jets. Holmes is a Super Bowl MVP with game-changing ability. He'll provide the stability and sure-hands that Sanchez will need as the young QB navigates through a bumpy second year with Super Bowl expectations on his back.

The Jets have improved since last year but will still face certain struggles, as the offense continues to grow. The defense will lead them to a division title.

NEW ENGLAND 10-6

Looking for the 2007 magic again

Bill Belichick and Tom Brady are out to prove they are still the best at what they do. Last year's crushing playoff loss to Baltimore exposed the defense as a cause for concern. With the offense back on track and Brady's knee further along, the Pats should have the firepower to ensure another trip to the playoffs.

Brady has Welker back quickly from a torn ACL and its hard to know how good he's feeling. He looks to be nearly fully recovered. Moss is in a contract year and they drafted a big TE in the second round, Rob Gronkowski, who has looked good this preseason. All signs for another impressive passing attack in New England. The running game will be by-committee again and provide only what's necessary.

The defense is the question mark. DE Ty Warren is out for the season, which is a major blow. Belichick will need young/new players to step up. The secondary must improve from last year. They drafted a CB, Devin McCourty, with the first round pick.

The Patriots will have another productive, playoff-run season. The pressure will continue to mount among fans desperate for the Pats' return to glory. They will have a good shot this year.

MIAMI 9-7

The Dolphins took a step back last year after 2008's division title but upgraded at some key positions and are poised to contend again this year.

Henne's in charge

Miami and third-year head coach Tony Sparano will continue with what has worked, the running game. Using Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown out of the Wildcat or power sets, the Dolphins will establish themselves on the ground to set-up Chad Henne in the passing game. The air attack will improve this year with the signing of Brandon Marshall, who will provide Henne the number one receiver that he so sorely needed last year. Marshall's size and ability will instantly bolster Miami's passing game.

The defense struggled at times last year and finished ranked 25th in points allowed. They let Joey Porter and Jason Taylor go, but brought in Karlos Dansby from Arizona. They spent first and second round picks on front-seven players. Sparano knows his defense must improve if he wants another shot at the playoffs, which is why he brought in Mike Nolan to coordinate the unit.

Miami will challenge within this tough division and could surprise people this year.

BUFFALO 3-13

Spiller will excite

The Bills have a new coach, Chan Gailey, a new running back, CJ Spiller, and a new defensive formation, the 3-4. Unfortunately, the new changes won't produce many wins this year in Buffalo.

The offense will continue to struggle with Trent Edwards. Between him and Ryan Fitzpatrick, the Bills need more production under center. Spiller looks to be an exciting player but will be asked to do a lot. Staying healthy will need to be the concern for him. It will be interesting to see how the Bills perform under its new coaches but the lack of talent and depth will be the factor.

AFC South Preview

The AFC South is a solid division from top to bottom. All four teams are viable and competitive year-in and year-out. History has taught us the Colts will make the playoffs and the Texans won't, while the Titans and Jaguars will fight around to varying degrees of success. That's been the story of this division and it will repeat again this year.

INDIANAPOLIS 12-4

Another stellar regular season for the Colts

It's like clockwork. Peyton Manning, Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark. No running game - it's just for show. Year after year after year. Expect more of the same. The only question will be the offensive line. Some new players will get the nod this year and veterans are getting older, but Manning is too smart to let that slow down the offense. Only the refs, with a possible new rule, have a chance.

The defense can be suspect at times, but not enough to do any real damage. Bob Sanders, the 2007 Defensive Player of the Year, will be back after missing a lot of time over the past two seasons. His presence on the field is a major boost for the Colts. Hopefully Sanders can stay healthy but history tells us otherwise. LB Gary Brackett injured his arm in the preseason and Indianapolis will need its leading tackler at full strength. X-rays were negative on Brackett.

The Colts are on their way to another division title and legitimate Super Bowl aspirations. The regular season is just a formality for Manning and the Colts as they try to atone for many playoff disappointments.

TENNESSEE 9-7

Best in the league

Chris Johnson is the most exciting player in the league and says he's going for Dickerson's record again this year. Despite his confidence, CJ won't rush for 2000 yards again, but it won't be for lack of effort. Tennessee knows CJ and the running game is its money-maker but it also knows Vince Young must be effective and consistent all year in order for the Titans to contend for a playoff spot.

The Titans could have made the playoffs last year if they hadn't went back to Kerry Collins for six ill-fated games to start the season. They dug themselves out of an 0-6 hole to finish a respectable 8-8, losing only to Indianapolis and San Diego in the final 10 games.

Teams will scheme on trying to contain Johnson, no easy task, and demand Young beat them with quick decisions and accuracy. Young continues to improve and is poised to have a productive year as the full-time starter. He's put some off-the-field issues behind him and looks ready to lead the Titans to the playoffs, as he did in 2007.

Defensively, Tennessee struggled to start the year and its problems culminated in Week 6 with a 59-0 loss to New England. The line loses KyleVanden Bosch to Detroit but Tennessee is known for producing defensive linemen capable of performing well.

The playoffs are well within reach for Tennessee. Young's execution, Johnson's health and a consistent defense will be necessary for a postseason run.

HOUSTON 8-8

Will just miss playoffs again

The Texans have been trying to get over the hump for the past three years and still haven't been able to crack into the postseason. Matt Schuab established himself as a quarterback who can put up numbers but hasn't proven himself as a leader of a playoff team.

Schuab and Andre Johnson proved to be an elite combo, leading Houston to the league's No. 1 passing offense. However, its running game was a disappointment, ranking 30th in the league and averaging only 3.5 yards per carry. Second-year RB Arian Foster looks to break out this season after ending last year strong and producing in the preseason.

The defense will deal with the loss of CB Dunta Robinson to Atlanta and LB Brian Cushing to a four-game suspension. Mario Williams will continue to add to his sack numbers. He's impressive rushing off the end.

Houston will have a decent team but will continue to struggle in its own division. The Colts have won 15 of the last 16 meetings against them and they open against each other in Houston. The Jags were able to get two from them last year and the Titans always get one from them. It's still not time to see Houston in the playoffs.

JACKSONVILLE 7-9

Del Rio needs wins to stay

A very tough team to figure out over the last few years. Jack Del Rio will have them playing as hard-nosed and gritty as any in the league but, unfortunately, toughness and grit alone don't result in wins. And at times last year, Del Rio's message wasn't surfacing at all. (example: The 41-0 loss at Seattle and 35-7 loss at New England were embarrassing.) Del Rio's time in Jacksonville could be coming to an end if he can't get the Jags going in the right direction.

David Garrard has consistently went downhill after his 2007 breakout year. His starting days are on thin ice, and he and Del Rio could share the same fate if things don't improve this year. Maurice Jones-Drew is one of the fiercest backs in the league and can produce running and catching the ball, but he's dealing with a leg injury in the preseason that could linger.

The Jags were last in the league with only 14 sacks last year, making it very tough on the secondary. They added two young pieces to the defensive line in the draft, as well as Aaron Kampman through free agency.

The Jags are young and were hit hard last year with injuries. They scrap and claw but it hasn't been enough to get the job done of late. Despite their efforts and attitude, they will have their hands full to stay out of the bottom of the division. Del Rio will be coaching for his job all year.

NFC South Preview

NEW ORLEANS 12-4

Don't expect the Saints to repeat as Super Bowl champs this year but expect another division title. Defending the crown is incredibly tough, ask Pittsburgh about last year. Drew Brees and Sean Payton know all about the challenges facing defending champions and will ride the league's best offense to another impressive season.

Brees and Payton set out on separate national media tours this off-season promoting books and cashed in on the position winning the Super Bowl provides, especially winning one in New Orleans. While some may get distracted by the constant attention and praise, Brees will get right back to business as one of the top-2 quarterbacks in the league.

New Orleans will get everyone's best shot this year, which is why it won't match last year's win total. The Saints may not score over 500 points again but its offense will be at the top of the league. Brees will spread it to all receivers and backs in incredible accuracy, while Pierre Thomas, Mike Bell, and Reggie Bush will have the rushing game clicking. The defense, which proved to be very opportunistic last year with huge plays and hits, will have to carry its own weight and improve on allowing points.

ATLANTA 10-6

Smith and Ryan trying to get back to the playoffs

Matt Ryan and head coach Mike Smith look to get back their first-year successes two years ago and return the Falcons to the playoffs. The QB and coach's rookie campaigns were so impressive it wasn't surprising to see them stutter slightly last year. While 9-7 isn't a bad season, Atlanta failed to make the playoffs and will be hungry in 2010.

Ryan must continue to improve and make fewer mistakes. His first two seasons have been very solid for a young QB and he will continue to mature in the pocket and have a very nice career. The weapons around him provide the potential for big plays and a balanced offense. Atlanta's running backs will provide the compliment Ryan needs to progress the passing game.

The Falcons hope Michael Turner will get back to 2008 form when he rushed for nearly 1700 yards and 17 TDs. He also carried the ball 376 times that year and some wonder if it wore him down, considering 80 attempts was his previous career-high. Turner battled with an ankle injury much of last year and, at 28, may not be able to carry a full load. Jerious Norwood and Justin Snelling filled in nicely at times last year.

Mike Smith will ensure a hard-nosed, fiery team ready to compete each Sunday. With continued improvements from Ryan and healthy running backs, Atlanta should return to the playoffs with a Wildcard bid.

CAROLINA 8-8

Can Moore lead the Panthers?

The best rushing tandem in the league resides in Carolina and their success will factor greatly into the successes of the team. DeAngelo Williams and Jonathon Stewert each rushed for over 1100 yards last year, and combined for 17 TDs. Similar results will be needed to allow QB Matt Moore to establish himself under center.

Moore looked good last year stepping in for Jake Delhomme, who suffered through a disastrous 18-interception season. Moore went 4-1 in his five starts to end the year and appears to be capable of starting in this league. His development hinges greatly on production this year and ability to adjust and read defenses. Backing up Moore will be rookies Jimmy Clausen and Tony Pike, so lack of experience at the position may be a factor. It's tough to know what to expect from Moore, but with a top-notch running game and line, he will have the necessary tools in place.

Losing Julius Peppers will play a role, as he's one of the league's top pass-rushers and Carolina's all-time leader with 81 sacks. Two other starters on the defensive line are also gone so Carolina will have to rely on younger players to pick up the slack, and blockers to allow All-Pro LB Jon Beason to make plays.

John Fox will have a well-prepared, physical team. With decent quarterback play, it wouldn't be surprising to see Carolina make a playoff push this year.

TAMPA BAY 3-13

Tampa Bay is still rebuilding with a young head coach and younger team. Many question marks still surround the Bucs and gaining more valuable experience may be the reachable goal for this year's team.

More improvement this year

Josh Freeman started the final nine games last year and will begin the season as the starter. He led the Bucs to all three of its wins last year, but played with the inconsistencies you would expect from a rookie on a sub-par team. Expect Freeman to have another up-and-down year as Tampa faces an uphill road again this season. Freeman is also dealing with a fractured right thumb which kept him out of the final two preseason games.

No. 3 overall pick DT Gerald McCoy will be a player to watch on the defensive line. The Bucs need all the help they can get there. They were ranked 32nd against the rush last year.

Tampa Bay will be driven by the passion and fire of its young, second-year coach Raheem Morris and they will hope to steal some wins from unexpecting teams. However, the roster is so young and inexperienced, this season will be spent more on improving than winning.